Accessibility modeling in earthquake case considering road closure probabilities: A case study of health and shelter service accessibility in Thessaloniki, Greece

One of the main focuses of disaster management is to decrease the impact of disasters by developing efficient emergency management plans and strategies. In this context, accessibility modeling of emergency related services such as health, fire, security services, or shelter sites in earthquake case can be a valuable tool for disaster managers, especially in assessing the vulnerability of urban districts as well as the sufficiency and appropriateness of the emergency service sites. Although there are several studies on the accessibility modeling of emergency related services in the aftermath of a disastrous event, the literature that integrates road closure probabilities into the accessibility estimation is quite limited. Hence, this paper aims to develop a methodology for modeling of accessibility based on a probabilistic estimation of road closures in earthquake case. The mentioned probabilities are predicted for given road network and hazard acting upon it and then incorporated into the accessibility analysis. The developed methodology is demonstrated through an application on health services and shelter sites in the city of Thessaloniki in Greece with and without considering the road closures, corresponding to road network under earthquake and normal conditions respectively. In this particular study, the road closures are associated to ground failure and damage to bridges, as well as damage of overpasses and collapses of buildings adjacent to road edges. The developed methodology could provide advanced and more realistic support to the emergency managers and decision-makers who deal with accessibility, location/allocation, and service/catchment area of critical facilities. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.