Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Julien Boe, Alexandre Mass, Juliette Deman
Summary: This study describes a hybrid statistical dynamical downscaling method that aims to emulate regional climate models, and applies it to Western Europe. The method does not rely on the stationarity assumption of traditional statistical downscaling, and is shown to effectively reproduce climate change signals.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Naomi Goldenson, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, David W. Pierce, Kevin A. Reed, Isla R. Simpson, Paul Ullrich, Will Krantz, Alex Hall, Andrew Jones, Stefan Rahimi
Summary: Dynamical downscaling is an important process that provides regional climate information by using global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. It is necessary to prioritize the selection of global climate models (GCMs) for downscaling studies due to limited computational resources. The selection should prioritize evaluating processes relevant to boundary conditions and regional uses. Metrics for representing relevant processes and procedures for selecting realizations from top-performing GCM simulations are needed. The weighting of metrics and prioritization of realizations may vary depending on user needs.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wushan Ying, Huiping Yan, Jing-Jia Luo
Summary: This study evaluates the skill of the NUIST-CFS1.0 model in predicting summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that the model can moderately predict the interannual variations of the rainbands and the links between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. However, there is large uncertainty in the forecasts and the magnitudes are underestimated. The downscaling experiments with the WRF model improve the predictions to some extent, but the skill is highly dependent on the global model forecast.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jizhou Bai, Zixiang Zhou, Jing Li, Ting Liu, Qing Zhu, Ting Zheng
Summary: Soil conservation service is crucial for suppressing soil erosion and assessing it accurately is important for regional ecological protection and environmental security. However, limited research has been done on ecosystem service prediction due to the lack of high-resolution meteorological data. This study introduces the dynamical downscaling method to predict the temporal-spatial characteristics of soil conservation service using the WRF model and SWAT model. The results provide scientific support for ecological construction and management.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2022)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yanhong Gao, Jianwei Xu, Meng Zhang, Zhaoyang Liu, Jingyu Dan
Summary: The Tibetan Plateau is the largest cryosphere outside of the Arctic and Antarctic and plays a crucial role in the global climate system. The continuation of climate change is projected to result in the loss of glaciers and frozen soil, leading to reduced freshwater resources in the region. Dynamical downscaling, based on atmospheric dynamics and physical processes, can provide more accurate surface conditions and better simulate regional weather and climate situations. Improving land surface models and land-atmosphere interaction can further enhance the performance of dynamical downscaling in the Tibetan Plateau region.
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Freddy Bangelesa, Felix Pollinger, Barbara Sponholz, Mala Ali Mapatano, Anne Hatloy, Heiko Paeth
Summary: This study uses a novel approach combining local and large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) predictors to model the impacts of future climate change on crop yields in Africa. The findings highlight the significant role of climate predictors, particularly in West Africa, and project a decrease in maize yield over the entire study region by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario. The study emphasizes the importance of incorporating climate predictors at various scales into crop yield modeling and provides valuable guidance for decision-makers in shaping adaptation options.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Darwin Mena, Abel Solera, Lina Restrepo, Melissa Pimiento, Miguel Canon, Freddy Duarte
Summary: Climate change can have a significant impact on hydrological services in Andean basins, potentially leading to reduced water supply and challenges in meeting the needs of different users. This study utilized Hydro-BID and WEAP modeling tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Guali River Basin, showing a possible decrease in flow and unsatisfied water demand under different scenarios. The approach presented in this study is valuable for making timely decisions to address water demands in the face of climate change.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Maya Negev, Yara Dahdal, Haneen Khreis, Assaf Hochman, Mohammed Shaheen, Madi T. A. Jaghbir, Pinhas Alpert, Hagai Levine, Nadav Davidovitch
Summary: This paper discusses the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel, Palestine, and Jordan, emphasizing the potential for cross-border infections and outbreaks transmission. It highlights Jordan's ability to better contain the virus and calls for strengthened health surveillance and cross-border cooperation to protect the health of all inhabitants in the region.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
G. Zittis, M. Almazroui, P. Alpert, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, Y. Dahdal, M. Fnais, D. Francis, P. Hadjinicolaou, F. Howari, A. Jrrar, D. G. Kaskaoutis, M. Kulmala, G. Lazoglou, N. Mihalopoulos, X. Lin, Y. Rudich, J. Sciare, G. Stenchikov, E. Xoplaki, J. Lelieveld
Summary: Observation-based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region as a prominent climate change hotspot. The region's greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly increasing, leading to faster warming compared to other inhabited regions. Projected future trends include continued warming and an increase in extreme weather events. The region's vulnerability to climate change highlights the importance of adaptation and resilience strategies for sectors at risk.
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Farzad Jalaeifar, Amin Sarang, Asghar Abdoli, Mohammad Hosein Niksokhan
Summary: This study proposes a new method for designing stable urban river geometries and predicts a 35% increase in the width of urban rivers in the future. The research emphasizes the urgent need to consider climate change in urban river restoration initiatives.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Fengyi Xie, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier
Summary: This study developed a physics ensemble of WRF model simulations for the MEMNA regions and found that the cumulus and land surface schemes have a significant impact on simulated precipitation and near surface temperature. Coupling the WRF model with the ROMS model improves the accuracy of Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, while no significant difference is found in the atmospheric fields between coupled and uncoupled runs.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Reyhaneh Rahimi, Hassan Tavakol-Davani, Mohsen Nasseri
Summary: This research introduces a new framework to evaluate the parametric uncertainty of downscaling models, and assesses the performance of different bias correction methods. The results show that LOCI and PT outperform the conventional VIF in both precipitation amount and occurrence modules in every assessed climate class within the SDSM framework.
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Santiago X. Nunez Mejia, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems
Summary: This study investigates the current conditions and future changes in extreme precipitation events and water shortage in Quito, Ecuador. The results indicate an intensification of extreme precipitation events and an increase in river peak discharges, while low river flows are projected to decrease. Climate models are identified as the dominant source of uncertainty.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mirindra Finaritra Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina, Md. Hasibur Rahaman, Jun Zhai
Summary: Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is crucial for water resources management. This study predicts future hydrology in the Mangoky river, Madagascar using ANN and SWAT models, showing temperature rise and fluctuating precipitation trends. The findings indicate significant decreases in annual runoff due to changes in precipitation and temperature.
Article
Water Resources
Parthiban Loganathan, Amit Baburao Mahindrakar
Summary: This study adapted an improved PCR downscaling technique to downscale historical outputs of 26 CMIP5 GCMs, focusing on regional climate impacts in the Cauvery river basin. The PCR model performed remarkably well with significantly reduced computational time and small variance in validation results. Additionally, strategically chosen GCMs such as CCSM4, inmcm4, and EC-EARTH demonstrated exceptional performance in reproducing precipitation statistics over the study area.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Deniz Bozkurt, David H. Bromwich, Jorge Carrasco, Keith M. Hines, Juan Carlos Maureira, Roberto Rondanelli
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Deniz Bozkurt, David H. Bromwich, Jorge Carrasco, Roberto Rondanelli
Summary: This study predicts temperature and precipitation changes in the Antarctic Peninsula in the near future under a high emission scenario. While temperatures are projected to increase across the entire peninsula, with more substantial increases in autumn and winter, precipitation is expected to increase overall but show some notable differences in certain regions like the Larsen Ice Shelf. The study highlights the challenges in obtaining consistent projections from global climate models and the added value of regional climate models in capturing finer local details and processes.
Review
Ecology
Jorge F. Carrasco, Deniz Bozkurt, Raul R. Cordero
Summary: Analysis of temperature data in the Antarctic Peninsula suggests that the warming trend in the region may be coming to an end in the 21st century, possibly transitioning into a cooling period. Significant temperature changes have been observed in the past few decades, with noticeable breakpoints in the late 1990s and potentially in the mid-2010s, coinciding with changes in large-scale climate modes such as the Antarctic Annular Mode (AAO).
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
D. Bozkurt, O. L. Sen, Y. Ezber, B. Guan, M. Viale, F. Caglar
Summary: The study shows that atmospheric rivers traveling from North Africa can interact with the highlands of the Near East, affecting the region's hydrometeorology and water resources. The major source regions of these ARs are found to be the Red Sea and northeast Africa, leading to enhanced precipitation and warmer conditions in the crescent-shaped orographic regions of the NE during the snowmelt season.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alan Demortier, Deniz Bozkurt, Martin Jacques-Coper
Summary: This study investigates the main drivers of heat wave events in central Chile using state-of-the-art reanalysis data and observations, revealing that temperature extremes and frequency of heat waves are better captured at inland stations compared to coastal stations. The study also highlights the importance of synoptic- and large-scale features, as well as sub-synoptic processes such as coastal lows, in shaping the characteristics of heat wave events.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Stammerjohn, T. Scambos
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Claudio Bravo, Deniz Bozkurt, Andrew N. Ross, Duncan J. Quincey
Summary: The Northern Patagonian Icefield and the Southern Patagonian Icefield have experienced increased ice mass loss in recent decades. Future surface mass balance predictions indicate that this trend will continue, primarily due to an increase in surface melt.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Deniz Bozkurt, Ghislain Picard, Bin Guan
Summary: This study investigates the occurrence of atmospheric rivers from northwest Africa towards Europe in the winter season and evaluates their impact on snow melt in the Alps. The study finds that these events lead to significant changes in snow depth and surface albedo.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Julio C. Marin, Deniz Bozkurt, Bradford S. Barrett
Summary: This study analyzed the seasonal evolution and trends of atmospheric blocking from 1979 to 2018 and found that the occurrence of blocking days varied across different regions and seasons, and was associated with the Antarctic Oscillation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kyle R. Clem, Deniz Bozkurt, Daemon Kennett, John C. King, John Turner
Summary: Extreme summertime surface melt and record-high temperature events on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf are triggered by deep convection in the central tropical Pacific, which transports warm and moist air to the area, causing strong foehn warming and surface melt. Variability in central tropical Pacific convection is a key driver of surface mass balance and extreme high temperatures in the area.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Rodolfo Sapiains, Gabriela Azocar, Pilar Moraga, Catalina Valenzuela, Paulina Aldunce, Camilo Cornejo, Maisa Rojas, Antonio Pulgar, Loreto Medina, Deniz Bozkurt
Summary: Deep structural transformations are occurring in Chile to strengthen climate action and community participation. However, despite high climate change concern, a traditional top-down understanding of community participation prevails. Strategies aimed at more profound cognitive and relational changes from a bottom-up perspective are necessary to avoid negative transformation trajectories.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Deniz Bozkurt, Juan Cuesta, Emmanuel Bosc
Summary: Large dust storms in the Middle East in May 2022 had severe environmental, social, and health impacts. Through analyzing satellite, in-situ, and reanalysis datasets, this study identified the factors driving these storms and evaluated their effects. It was found that dust emission was promoted by density currents from deep convection over Turkey, triggered by cut-off lows from mid-latitudes fed by moisture from African atmospheric rivers. The dust clouds were transported southward at 4 km in altitude but sank to ground levels when reaching the southern Arabian Peninsula due to strong subsidence. The dust episodes caused a significant drop in shortwave flux and an increase in longwave flux, resulting in a 9 degrees C increase in nighttime temperatures.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Tomas Carrasco-Escaff, Maisa Rojas, Rene Dario Garreaud, Deniz Bozkurt, Marius Schaefer
Summary: The aim of this study is to understand the present-day climatic control of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Patagonian Icefields at interannual timescales, especially considering large-scale processes. We modeled the present-day glacioclimatic surface conditions for the southern Andes Cordillera and found that years of relatively high SMB are associated with the establishment of an anomalous low-pressure center near the Drake Passage, while years of relatively low SMB are associated with the opposite conditions. This study also highlights the Drake Passage as a key region that has the potential to influence the SMB variability of the Patagonian Icefields.
Article
Geography, Physical
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flandez, Deniz Bozkurt, Ralf Greve
Summary: This study applies an ice-sheet model to simulate the evolution of glaciers in the Chilean Lake District and projects considerable deglaciation by the end of the 21st century.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Min Xu, Lejiang Yu, Kaixin Liang, Timo Vihma, Deniz Bozkurt, Xiaoming Hu, Qinghua Yang
Summary: By studying the extreme temperature event on the Antarctic Peninsula in 2020, it was found that the formation mechanism of this event was due to a ridge of high pressure and a blocking high pressure that brought warm and moist air from the Pacific Ocean to the Antarctic Peninsula, with foehn warming playing a key role in vertical air flow.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
