4.7 Article

Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system

期刊

RENEWABLE ENERGY
卷 99, 期 -, 页码 379-389

出版社

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.07.022

关键词

Renewable generation; Multi-stage stochastic optimization; Climate change effects; Hydro-thermal scheduling; Water inflows

资金

  1. AES-Tiete [010/2008-ANEEL]

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Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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