Article
Remote Sensing
Andres Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Nicola Clerici, Benjamin Quesada
Summary: This study presents a new land use-land cover (LULC) product for the Colombian Amazon and Andes with a resolution of 30 m x 30 m for the year 2018. The product was created using Landsat OLI 8 data and classification and validation procedures based on the Google Earth Engine platform. The new LULC product shows high overall accuracy (>90%) and improves upon the current coarser datasets for Colombia.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Charlie Wilson, Celine Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Volker Krey, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Erica L. Thompson
Summary: This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on six different evaluation methods and proposing a systematic evaluation framework for informing climate policy.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
A. F. Hollands, H. Daly
Summary: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target 7.1, to provide universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy by 2030, needs to be achieved alongside global greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The continued reliance of 2.6 billion people on solid fuel for cooking and heating has significant environmental impacts. However, current decarbonization models lack a detailed pathway for universal clean cooking access, which restricts the representation of the interconnected transitions of mitigating climate change and achieving universal energy access. This study presents a novel methodology for incorporating residential cooking pathways into the TIMES energy systems optimization model framework, using India as a proof-of-concept case study to explore solutions for clean cooking access in the context of reduced GHG emissions. The model presented in this study is published and publicly available.
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Tao Tang, Xuhui Lee, Keer Zhang, Lei Cai, David M. Lawrence, Elena Shevliakova
Summary: This study examines the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on air temperature using CMIP6 model simulations. It finds that croplands are generally warmer in the tropics and cooler in the mid-high latitudes compared to primary and secondary land. However, the surface heating potential fails to accurately predict the subgrid temperature variation for different land tile configurations under SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. The study proposes using the relationship between latitudinal subgrid temperature variation and surface energy redistribution factor as a benchmark for land surface parameterizations and temperature prediction.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Tom M. L. Wigley, Sanghyun Hong, Barry W. Brook
Summary: The study evaluated three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and found discrepancies in their predictions related to historical data and future scenarios. It was noted that mitigation technology failures varied greatly among the IAMs, suggesting the need for a more thorough examination of their projections. Recommendations included improving the availability of comprehensive model output for further analysis, ensuring consistent comparative scenarios for assessment, and conducting detailed inter-model comparisons for deeper insights into model credibility.
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Akpe Agbossou, Jeremie Kokou Fontodji, Koffi Ayassou, Sanonka Tchegueni, Kossi Novinyo Segla, Kossi Adjonou, Yao Bokovi, Ayite-Lo Ajayon, Aniko Polo-Akpisso, Johan C. Kuylenstierna, Christopher S. Malley, Eleni Michalopoulou, Jessica Slater
Summary: Togo, a country in West Africa, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change but has made a negligible contribution to causing it. By ratifying the Paris Agreement and submitting its Nationally Determined Contributions, Togo has acknowledged the importance of mitigating climate change while improving air quality and health for its citizens. An assessment of priority mitigation measures suggests that Togo can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% and achieve a more than 75% reduction in black carbon emissions by implementing these measures.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Athiwat Phinyoyang, Suwit Ongsomwang
Summary: The study aimed to optimize land use and land cover allocation for flood mitigation in Chaiyaphum province, Thailand. The results showed that the most suitable LULC allocation for flood mitigation in a normal year could provide the highest future economic value and gain.
Editorial Material
Environmental Sciences
Anton Orlov, Kristin Aunan, Malcolm N. Mistry, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Wim Thiery, Antonio Gasparrini, Eilif Ursin Reed, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Summary: Climate change has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality and morbidity, particularly under high greenhouse gas emission pathways. Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires not only drastic reductions in fossil fuel-based emissions, but also land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), such as reforestation and afforestation. LULCC has been mainly analyzed in the context of land-based mitigation and food security, but there is growing scientific evidence that it can also substantially alter the climate through biogeophysical effects. The consequential impacts on human health are not well understood, and research on LULCC-related impacts should broaden its scope to include human health impacts. Collaboration across research communities and stronger stakeholder engagement are necessary to address this knowledge gap, as LULCC is relevant to several global agendas, such as the Sustainable Development Goals.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Demelash Ademe Malede, Tena Alamirew, Tesfa Gebrie Andualem
Summary: This study investigates the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on the hydrological processes of the Birr River watershed. The results show that changes in LULC have increased surface runoff and decreased baseflow, water yield, and evapotranspiration. Climate change has also increased surface runoff and water yield, while decreasing baseflow and evapotranspiration. These findings are important for authorities, water engineers, and managers concerned with hydrology, LULC, and climate.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Jimin Lee, Minji Park, Joong-Hyuk Min, Eun Hye Na
Summary: Changes in land use and climate can affect the surface runoff and baseflow of streamflow. This study aims to improve predictions of streamflow using the SWAT model by applying the alpha factor estimated using BFLOW for calibration, and to evaluate the impacts of land use and climate changes on streamflow and baseflow. The results show that the alpha factor estimated using BFLOW improves the prediction accuracy of streamflow and baseflow in the SWAT model. Additionally, changes in land use have led to differences in the seasonal characteristics of streamflow and baseflow in the study area.
Article
Environmental Studies
Aonghus O. Domhnaill, Brian Broderick, Margaret O'Mahony
Summary: This research develops an enhanced Wind Sector Land Use Regression (WSLUR) model to estimate nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations across Ireland, in areas where air pollution monitoring is not available. The model incorporates details of the vehicle fleet breakdown to differentiate routes with varying proportions of heavier emitting vehicles. The impact of COVID-19 on NO2 concentration levels was also investigated.
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Linfei Yu, Guoyong Leng
Summary: This study estimated the global biophysical temperature effects of LULCC using CMIP6 climate models and found a historical global warming effect of LULCC at a rate of 0.0025 degrees C/century. Forested/non-forested secondary land, urban land, and cropland have contributed over 70% to LULCC's temperature effect, with land transitions and land management also playing significant roles in the climate impact.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Emma W. Littleton, Anita Shepherd, Anna B. Harper, Astley F. S. Hastings, Naomi E. Vaughan, Jonathan Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Timothy M. Lenton
Summary: This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of large-scale bioenergy by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario. The results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling-up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. These findings have important policy implications for limiting global warming to 'well below 2 degrees C'.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Bisrat Ayalew Yifru, Il-Moon Chung, Min-Gyu Kim, Sun Woo Chang
Summary: The East African Rift Valley basin heavily relies on water discharge from highlands to rivers, with cultivated land dominating the area. The study explored the impact of land use/land cover and climate change on water yield and groundwater recharge using SWAT-MODFLOW. It was found that climate change significantly affects the spatial distribution of water yield and groundwater recharge, while land use/land cover change has a trivial effect.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Studies
Parviz Azizi, Ali Soltani, Farokh Bagheri, Shahrzad Sharifi, Mehdi Mikaeili
Summary: Long-term sustainable development in developing countries requires researching and projecting urban physical growth and land use/land cover change. This study explores the issues of modelling coupled LUCC and urban growth, their causes, and the role of policymakers, using the Tabriz metropolitan area in Iran as a case study. The research uses four well-established methods to design an integrated framework and examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of LUCC and urban growth.
Article
Agronomy
Isabela Tagomori, Vassilis Daioglou, Pedro Rochedo, Gerd Angelkorte, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexandre Szklo
Summary: The study applied the Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) to assess bioenergy supply in the Brazilian context and investigate the role of recovered degraded pasture lands. The results showed different outcomes when optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs, and revealed that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The BLOEM model provides valuable insights for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY
(2023)
Review
Energy & Fuels
Antonella Mazzone, Denizia Kawany Fulkaxo Cruz, Scorah Tumwebaze, Manari Ushigua, Philipp A. Trotter, Andrea Espinoza Carvajal, Roberto Schaeffer, Radhika Khosla
Summary: Energy development in Indigenous lands has been controversial due to the exclusion of Indigenous knowledge and alternative perspectives. This review calls for a pluralistic approach that incorporates Indigenous narratives and experiences to create more sustainable and people-centric energy interventions.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini, Gerd Angelkorte, Pedro Luiz Maia, Clarissa Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa Vicente, Taisa Morais, Lucas Carvalho, Marianne Zanon-Zotin, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, Joana Portugal-Pereira
Summary: Bio-sustainable aviation fuels (bio-SAFs) are considered as an important strategy for decarbonizing the aviation sector in the mid-term. This study evaluates the Land-Use Change (LUC) implications of producing bio-SAFs in Brazil under different forest conservation governance scenarios. Four bio-SAF routes are evaluated using Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) syntheses. The results show that the production of bio-SAFs can lead to different greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, depending on factors such as deforestation rates and feedstock types. Effective land conservation policies are crucial for reducing LUC GHG emissions and promoting the large-scale production of bio-SAFs.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Economics
Bruno Andrade Diniz, Alexandre Szklo, Mauricio T. Tolmasquim, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: Brazil has extensive experience using auctions to procure electricity from renewable and non-renewable sources. Our study reveals that introducing a preliminary transmission capacity phase and shifting the risk of transmission grid delays to project developers significantly improves the performance of wind power projects in auctions. Projects with longer lead times take more time to complete, but face lower risks of delays and penalties. The size of the plant affects the likelihood of delays, while the type of auction has no significant impact. Lower bids do not lead to longer delays, suggesting that the Brazilian auction system effectively mitigates the winner's curse. Our findings contribute to the existing literature and offer insights for policymakers on auction design to promote renewable electricity supply expansion.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Amanda Vinhoza, Andre F. P. Lucena, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: In this paper, the cost potential of Brazilian offshore wind energy is assessed using a methodological approach that combines spatial suitability analysis and a cost estimation model. The available area for development is mapped and classified based on the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), generating a cost potential map and a cost-supply curve. The results demonstrate that Brazil has a promising market for offshore wind energy, with significant installable capacity and internationally competitive costs.
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS
(2023)
Article
Thermodynamics
Clarissa Bergman-Fonte, Gabriela Nascimento da Silva, Mariana Imperio, Rebecca Draeger, Leticia Coutinho, Bruno S. L. Cunha, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: Deep decarbonization scenarios require adaptation in oil refineries due to decreasing fossil oil usage. This study evaluates the refining sector's evolution in Brazil until 2050 using the BLUES integrated assessment model. Strategies related to feedstock production for the petrochemical industry, aviation and maritime fuels, and biomass co-processing are analyzed, along with exploring emissions mitigation options. Findings show that the sector operates at a reduced capacity in decarbonization scenarios, reducing risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Aline C. Soterroni, Mariana Imperio, Marluce C. Scarabello, Nathalie Seddon, Michael Obersteiner, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Pedro R. Andrade, Fernando M. Ramos, Tasso R. Azevedo, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Petr Havlik, Ane A. C. Alencar
Summary: The study investigates whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to achieve its net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goal by 2050. The results emphasize the critical role of ecosystem protection as the most cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, highlighting the potential risks of relying on expensive and immature engineered solutions.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Marianne Zanon-Zotin, Clarissa Bergman-Fonte, Taisa Nogueira Morais, Pedro Luiz Barbosa Maia, Lucas Carvalho, Gerd Angelkorte, Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini, Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: This study evaluates the life cycle of bioethylene production in Brazil, the EU, and the US and finds that bioethylene production through catalytic dehydration of sugar-cane bioethanol in Brazil has the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. However, when excluding biogenic carbon storage, none of the pathways outperform conventional fossil-based steam cracking.
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ploy Achakulwisut, Peter Erickson, Celine Guivarch, Roberto Schaeffer, Elina Brutschin, Steve Pye
Summary: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's mitigation scenarios database is a valuable resource for policymakers, but there are variations in models and scenario designs. This analysis focuses on scenarios with warming limited to 2 degrees C or below, examining the feasibility and trajectory of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. The findings emphasize the importance of clear reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use, along with other climate mitigation targets.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Thermodynamics
Marcus Vinicius da Silva Neves, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer
Summary: The concept of Energy Return On Investment (EROI) has been proven useful, but needs to be extended to include CO2 capture and environmental effects in the energy transition. This study introduces the concept of Exergy Return on Environment and Energy Investment (ExROEEI) to assess fossil fuel sources complying with CO2 emission limits. Applying this concept to a coal-based power plant with CO2 capture, the ExROEEI ratio is 2.06:1, raising questions about its energy feasibility.
