期刊
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES
卷 365, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109075
关键词
Predator-prey model; Noise-induced tipping; Allee effect; Holling type IV functional response
Understanding the impact of environmental stochasticity on tipping points in predator-prey systems is crucial for population protection and ecosystem robustness. This study evaluates the relationship between stochasticity and the probability and time of tipping between different steady states in a system with high group cohesion among prey. The analysis shows that the effects of stochasticity on tipping phenomena are scenario-dependent but follow interpretable trends. Management criteria and early warning signals can be developed based on these results to prevent populations from reaching destructive critical thresholds.
Understanding how tipping points arise is critical for population protection and ecosystem robustness. This work evaluates the impact of environmental stochasticity on the emergence of tipping points in a predator- prey system subject to the Allee effect and Holling type IV functional response, modeling an environment in which the prey has high group cohesion. We analyze the relationship between stochasticity and the probability and time that predator and prey populations in our model tip between different steady states. We evaluate the safety from extinction of different population values for each species, and accordingly assign extinction warning levels to these population values. Our analysis suggests that the effects of environmental stochasticity on tipping phenomena are scenario-dependent but follow a few interpretable trends. The probability of tipping towards a steady state in which one or both species go extinct generally monotonically increased with noise intensity, while the probability of tipping towards a more favorable steady state (in which more species were viable) usually peaked at intermediate noise intensity. For tipping between two equilibria where a given species was at risk of extinction in one equilibrium but not the other, noise affecting that species had greater impact on tipping probability than noise affecting the other species. Noise in the predator population facilitated quicker tipping to extinction equilibria, whereas prey noise instead often slowed down extinction. Changes in warning level for initial population values due to noise were most apparent near attraction basin boundaries, but noise of sufficient magnitude (especially in the predator population) could alter risk even far away from these boundaries. Our model provides critical theoretical insights for the conservation of population diversity: management criteria and early warning signals can be developed based on our results to keep populations away from destructive critical thresholds.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据