Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit

Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2 degrees C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2. However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown. The 'biogeochemical fingerprint' of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within similar to 20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.

Automated summary

Climate change scenarios indicate the need for large-scale carbon dioxide removal to combat global warming, putting the focus back on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). However, our study shows that while OIF can increase carbon sequestration, it may also intensify the decline of tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass, with limited impact on atmospheric CO2. The interaction between OIF and ongoing climate change could lead to reduced animal biomass in tropical regions, particularly in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), which could have implications for fisheries.