Article
Oceanography
Hui Zhou, Hengchang Liu, Shuwen Tan, Wenlong Yang, Yao Li, Xueqi Liu, Qiang Ren, William K. Dewar
Summary: This study investigated the structure and variations of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) in the far western Pacific Ocean during 2014-16, finding that the impact of the 2015/16 El Nino on the NECC was comparable to that of the extreme 1997/98 El Nino, showing baroclinic instability during the developing phase. This differs from traditional understanding and highlights the diverse eddy-mean flow interactions associated with various states of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Matthew Collins, Boris Dewitte, Christina Karamperidou, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker, Andrea S. Taschetto, Axel Timmermann, Lixin Wu, Sang-Wook Yeh, Guojian Wang, Benjamin Ng, Fan Jia, Yun Yang, Jun Ying, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Tobias Bayr, Josephine R. Brown, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim M. Cobb, Bolan Gan, Tao Geng, Yoo-Geun Ham, Fei-Fei Jin, Hyun-Su Jo, Xichen Li, Xiaopei Lin, Shayne McGregor, Jae-Heung Park, Karl Stein, Kai Yang, Li Zhang, Wenxiu Zhong
Summary: This review discusses the global climatic implications of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and highlights projected increases in ENSO magnitude, rainfall, and sea surface temperature variability under anthropogenic warming. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding ENSO dynamics and highlights advancements in modeling and simulations to reduce uncertainties in future projections.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Agronomy
Camilo Barrios-Perez, Kensuke Okada, Gabriel Garces Varon, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Maria Camila Rebolledo, Steven D. Prager
Summary: The study assessed the impact of ENSO on the spatio-temporal variability of agro-climatic conditions and rice yield in central Colombia. It found that during positive ENSO phases, rice irrigation water requirements increased, while they decreased during negative phases, with the number of heat nights being the most important agro-climatic factor causing yield losses during ENSO events.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Ruby Saha, Neelima Gupte
Summary: We construct climate networks to identify distinct signatures of climatic phenomena and discuss the predictive power of these quantities.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Christopher W. Callahan, Justin S. Mankin
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impacts on the global economy, leading to persistent reductions in economic growth. El Nino events have caused trillions of dollars in global income losses, and future intensification of ENSO due to climate change could lead to even greater economic losses.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Babalwa Gqomfa, Thabang Maphanga, Takalani Terry Phungela, Benett Siyabonga Madonsela, Karabo Malakane, Stanley Lekata
Summary: This study investigates how ENSO affects water quality by examining COD, SS, and Escherichia coli levels along the Crocodile River. Water samples were collected from three strategic locations on the river between 2016 and 2021 and analyzed in an accredited laboratory using Python (version 3.8), Spyder, and Microsoft Excel 2019. The highest COD concentration (800 mg/L) was observed at the White River site during El Nino, followed by 600 mg/L during the normal period, and 240 mg/L during La Nina. In 2019, E. coli levels were consistently at 60 cfu/100 mL during La Nina and the normal period, while no E. coli levels were detected in 2021 during La Nina, El Nino, and the normal periods. Suspended solids were more prevalent in the White River (upstream) during the El Nino period. These findings demonstrate the ability to evaluate local impacts associated with large-scale climate variability.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xieyuan Wang, Tim Li, Chao He
Summary: Through diagnostic analysis of 29 AMIP experiments, the study found that the difference in precipitation patterns in the Indo-western Pacific Ocean warm pool impacts the WNPAC, with different mechanisms affecting the WNPAC response during decaying summers of EP and CP El Nino events.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li, Ying Zhang
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. Research has found that the economic damage from El Nino is far greater than the benefits from La Nina, and under greenhouse warming, increased ENSO variability leads to increased economic loss.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jiaqing Xue, Hongpei Yang, Jing-Jia Luo, Chaoxia Yuan, Boni Wang, Toshio Yamagata
Summary: In this study, we systematically evaluated the simulation of Ningaloo Nino/Nina in the southeast Indian Ocean using CMIP6 models. We found that 18 out of 28 models well reproduced the spatial pattern and seasonality, and most of the models successfully captured the main processes of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections and the coastal Bjerknes feedback. However, there were large differences in the simulated amplitudes across the models.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Li-Chiao Wang, Yu-Shen Lin
Summary: A systematic bias of the extremely westward zonal current (EWZC) was found in CMIP6 models, which affects the simulation of zonal advective feedback. This bias leads to the overestimation or underestimation of equatorial ZCA variability and the exaggerated zonal advective feedback in the Nino-4 region. This bias is crucial for a more accurate representation of central-Pacific El Nino-like pattern in CMIP6 models.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Richard Seager, Naomi Henderson, Mark Cane, Honghai Zhang, Jennifer Nakamura
Summary: This study reveals that the persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean have global hydroclimate impacts, primarily maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence, which is influenced by changes in ocean circulation and thermal structure.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Minghong Liu, Hong-Li Ren, Run Wang, Jieru Ma, Xin Mao
Summary: This study investigates the distinct impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation. The results show that EP El Nino and CP La Nina have opposite effects on summer precipitation in the southwestern TP, with significant decreases and increases respectively, while CP El Nino causes significant decreases in central-eastern TP. This study may deepen our understanding of ENSO impacts on TP summer precipitation and have implications for regional climate predictions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Michael J. McPhaden, Christina Karamperidou
Summary: In July 1929, Dr. Friedrich Ritter and Dore Strauch embarked on a journey to the remote Floreana Island in the Galapagos archipelago with the aim of living a self-sufficient life away from civilization. Their pioneering enterprise attracted attention from wealthy yachters, leading to the arrival of other settlers, including a mysterious baroness who caused turmoil on the island. However, the prolonged La Nina conditions during 1933-35 resulted in a drought and food shortages that claimed the life of Dr. Ritter. This story sheds light on the impact of climate on human drama in Floreana and its connection to the Dust Bowl in the United States.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Tobias Bayr, Annika Reintges, Mojib Latif
Summary: There is a significant debate on how the amplitude of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may change in response to global warming in the twenty-first century. Model projections exhibit a large spread, with internal variability being the main contributor to uncertainty in the first three decades. Total uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with model uncertainty decreasing and scenario uncertainty increasing.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xian Wu, Yuko M. Okumura, Pedro N. DiNezio
Summary: The study demonstrates that the duration of El Nino events can be predicted based on their onset timing, with initial ocean conditions playing a crucial role in determining whether the event will terminate or persist. The ensemble spread in duration results from variations in surface wind over the western equatorial Pacific following the peak, which leads to different outcomes in September-initialized simulations compared to April-initialized simulations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Soong-Ki Kim, Axel Timmermann, Jin-Soo Kim, Roman Olson, Soon-Il An
Summary: The study introduces a new low-order dynamical model that describes the interactions between climate, vegetation, and fire probabilities. By estimating key parameters and successfully reproducing the spatio-temporal variability of wildfires, the model provides long-term predictability of fire conditions in vulnerable regions.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kyung-Ja Ha, Ye-Won Seo, Ji-Hye Yeo, Axel Timmermann, Eui-Seok Chung, Christian L. E. Franzke, Johnny C. L. Chan, Sang-Wook Yeh, Mingfang Ting
Summary: This study explores the mechanisms of dry and moist heatwaves over East Asia using observations, climate change projections, and new generation Earth System models. The research finds that dry heatwaves are amplified by the convergence of wave activity over the region, resulting in surface warming. On the other hand, moist heatwaves are triggered by local anticyclonic anomalies and amplified by cloud and water vapor feedback. Model simulations project an intensification of dry heatwaves and an increase in moist heatwave days in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hien X. Bui, Axel Timmermann, June-Yi Lee, Eric D. Maloney, Yi-Xian Li, Ji-Eun Kim, Jacquelyn Shuman, Sun-Seon Lee, William R. Wieder
Summary: This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric stationary waves and wildfire occurrences, and finds that a zonal wavenumber 5-6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The presence of upper-troposphere ridges and troughs creates alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, affecting wildfire occurrence. More persistent high-pressure systems increase the likelihood of wildfires. While the dynamics of stationary waves do not change significantly with global warming, the variability of midlatitude wildfires is projected to intensify due to changes in climate conditions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Lei Huang, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Eui-Seok Chung
Summary: This study uses a simulation model to investigate the response of lake ice to global warming and finds that the duration of ice coverage and the thickness of ice will decrease significantly in the next 80 years. Lake ice loss is accelerated in the Canadian Arctic due to cold-season polar amplification, while on the Tibetan Plateau it is mainly caused by strong insolation forcing and ice-albedo feedbacks.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
R. Iestyn Woolway, Lei Huang, Sapna Sharma, Sun-Seon Lee, Keith B. Rodgers, Axel Timmermann
Summary: Millions of frozen lakes around the world provide essential ecosystem services for northern communities, but climate change threatens the availability of safe lake ice. A study using climate model simulations projects that the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten in a warmer world. Additionally, transportation infrastructure relying on thick lake ice will also be affected. Adaptation plans are needed to address the potential loss of critical wintertime transportation infrastructure.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Eun Young Kwon, M. G. Sreeush, Axel Timmermann, David M. Karl, Matthew J. Church, Sun-Seon Lee, Ryohei Yamaguchi
Summary: Marine phytoplankton play important roles in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide and sustaining marine ecosystems through converting inorganic carbon to organic carbon and exporting it to the deep sea via the biological carbon pump. However, the projections on future changes in marine net primary production are still highly uncertain.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Na-Yeon Shin, Jong-Seong Kug, Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann, Geon-Il Kim
Summary: In future climate projections, Central Pacific El Nino events are expected to happen more frequently, while Eastern Pacific El Nino events will increase in amplitude and have a higher chance of extreme occurrences.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Elke Zeller, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Pasquale Raia, Karl Stein, Jiaoyang Ruan
Summary: By simulating the evolution of the earth system-biome and analyzing extensive hominin fossil and archaeological data, we examine the impact of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration. The findings indicate that early African hominins primarily inhabited open environments such as grasslands and dry shrublands. As they migrated to Eurasia, hominins gradually adapted to a wider range of biomes. Furthermore, our ancestors actively selected spatially diverse environments, as evidenced by the correlation between the location and age of hominin sites and simulated regional biomes. In light of the quantitative results, a new diversity hypothesis is proposed, suggesting that Homo species, particularly Homo sapiens, possessed special abilities to adapt to landscape mosaics.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jun-Young Park, Fabian Schloesser, Axel Timmermann, Dipayan Choudhury, June-Yi Lee, Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
Summary: Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been widely used to assess ice-sheet contributions to future global sea-level rise. However, these projections often neglect the bidirectional interactions between ice-sheets and climate. In this study, we conducted greenhouse warming simulations using a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model and found that the ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 are estimated to be 0.2 +/- 0.01, 0.5 +/- 0.01, and 1.4 +/- 0.1 m under different emission scenarios. These results highlight the importance of considering the complex interactions between ice-sheets, ocean, and atmosphere in future sea-level rise projections.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sahil Sharma, Kyung-Ja Ha, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Keith B. B. Rodgers, Axel Timmermann, Eui-Seok Chung
Summary: Strong negative climatological air-sea interactions over the eastern Indian Ocean result in weakening of winds, changing ocean currents and contributing to non-uniform warming in the Arabian Sea and the southeastern Indian Ocean. The future weakening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient and slowed Indian Ocean Walker circulation in the eastern Indian Ocean leads to southeasterly wind anomalies in the Arabian Sea, causing anomalous northward ocean heat transport and enhanced future warming. In contrast, the warming in the southeastern Indian Ocean is related to a reduction in low-cloud cover and increased shortwave radiation.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Michael J. J. McPhaden, Julien Boucharel, Andrew T. T. Wittenberg
Summary: Understanding the connection between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has been a challenge for the climate community. While Atlantic Nino events are usually followed by Pacific events of opposite sign, incorporating Atlantic information does not enhance predictive skill for subsequent ENSO events. This study resolves this conundrum by showing that the observed correlation between Atlantic and Pacific is a statistical artifact, and the impact of Pacific events on the Atlantic is limited to a short window in late spring.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jiaoyang Ruan, Axel Timmermann, Pasquale Raia, Kyung-Sook Yun, Elke Zeller, Alessandro Mondanaro, Mirko Di Febbraro, Danielle Lemmon, Silvia Castiglione, Marina Melchionna
Summary: This study investigates the possibility of interbreeding between Neanderthals and Denisovans using species distribution models and simulations of global climate and biomes. The research reveals that climate-driven zonal shifts in central Eurasia influenced the timing and intensity of potential interbreeding events between these archaic humans. Glacial-interglacial climate swings played an important role in favoring gene flow between Neanderthals and Denisovans.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Vasiliki Margari, David A. Hodell, Simon A. Parfitt, Nick M. Ashton, Joan O. Grimalt, Hyuna Kim, Kyung-Sook Yun, Philip L. Gibbard, Chris B. Stringer, Axel Timmermann, Polychronis C. Tzedakis
Summary: Through analyzing deep-sea sediment samples from the Portuguese margin, researchers found pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during the glacial period around 1.154 to 1.123 million years ago, including a terminal stadial cooling comparable to the most extreme events of the last 400,000 years. Climate simulations indicate a drastic decrease in suitability of early human habitats around the Mediterranean during the terminal stadial. These extreme conditions led to the depopulation of Europe, potentially lasting for several successive glacial-interglacial cycles.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hyuna Kim, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Fabian Schloesser
Summary: Climate models indicate that increased greenhouse gas concentrations lead to intensified warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Previous research has focused on thermodynamic factors such as evaporative feedback and changes in upper ocean thermal stratification. However, our study shows that future increases in equatorial rainfall play a crucial role in tropical climate change. The associated negative equatorial salinity anomalies strengthen upper ocean stratification, leading to shifts in ocean dynamics and a weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ji-Eun Kim, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Keith B. Rodgers, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Karl Stein, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John T. Fasullo, Clara Deser, Nan Rosenbloom, Jim Edwards, Malte F. Stuecker
Summary: Climate model simulations CMIP6 show that the inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997-2014 due to satellite data infusion. CESM2-LE experiments demonstrate that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity induces spurious decadal subarctic land warming. This is caused by increased solar radiation triggering permafrost thawing, soil drying, and subsequent surface warming during years with reduced aerosol concentrations.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
