Robust spatial estimates of biomass carbon on farms

The drive for farm businesses to move towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions means that there is a need to develop robust methods to quantify the amount of biomass carbon (C) on farms. Direct measurements can be destructive and time-consuming and some prediction methods provide no assessment of uncertainty. This study describes the development, validation, and use of an integrated spatial approach, including the use of lidar data, and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to quantify total biomass carbon stocks (Ctotal) of i) land cover and ii) landscape features such as hedges and lone trees for five case study sites in lowland England. The results demonstrated that it was possible to develop and use a remote integrated approach to estimate biomass carbon at a farm scale. The highest achievable prediction accuracy was attained from models using the variables AGBC, BGBC, DOMC, age, height, species and land cover, derived from measured information and from literature review. The two BBN models successfully predicted the test values of the total biomass carbon with propagated error rates of 6.7 % and 4.3 % for the land cover and landscape features respectively. These error rates were lower than in other studies indicating that the seven predictors are strong determinants of biomass carbon. The lidar data also enabled the spatial presentation and calculation of the variable C stocks along the length of hedges and within woodlands.

Automated summary

The study developed and validated an integrated spatial approach using lidar data and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to quantify biomass carbon stocks in lowland England. The models achieved high prediction accuracy by using a combination of variables derived from measured information and literature review. The BBN models successfully predicted biomass carbon values for land cover and landscape features with low error rates. The lidar data enabled the spatial presentation and calculation of biomass carbon stocks along hedges and within woodlands.