Episodic dynamic change linked to damage on the thwaites glacier ice tongue

The stability and dynamics of Thwaites Glacier depend on the structural properties of its marine terminus; however, the relationship between these variables on the floating ice tongue is poorly understood. Here we present a six-year record of ice speed, derived from satellite observations starting in 2015, showing two large-magnitude (approximately 30-45%) and prolonged (approximately one to two years) cycles of speed variation across the ice tongue. Using an automated, deep learning-based method of extracting high-resolution fracture maps from satellite imagery, we detail periods of increasing fracture development and subsequent reconsolidation in the ice tongue shear margin that coincide with the observed speed changes. Inverse modelling using the BISICLES ice-sheet model indicates that the variation in ice speed can be accounted for by these observed changes to the spatial pattern of fracturing. This study provides further evidence of direct coupling between fracturing and dynamic variability in West Antarctica but indicates that increased fracturing and associated speed changes are reversible on one- to two-year timescales. We suggest that fracturing does not necessarily lead to positive feedback with glacier acceleration on these timescales and that damage process modelling is important for accurately predicting the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Automated summary

We present a six-year record of ice speed variation showing two prolonged cycles across the ice tongue of Thwaites Glacier. We also detailed the relationship between fracture development and speed changes using satellite imagery and an ice-sheet model. The study provides further evidence of the coupling between fracturing and dynamic variability in West Antarctica and highlights the importance of damage process modeling for predicting the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.