Review
Biodiversity Conservation
Carlos Carroll, Justina C. Ray
Summary: Global commitments to expand protected areas should prioritize protecting climate refugia and ecosystems that store high levels of unrecoverable carbon as effective responses to biodiversity loss and climate change. Despite being responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, the US and Canada have initiated processes for expanding protected areas and recognizing nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation. Coordinated national and regional policies are needed to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Aggeliki Doxa, Vasiliki Almpanidou, Stelios Katsanevakis, Ana M. Queiros, Kristin Kaschner, Cristina Garilao, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes, Antonios D. Mazaris
Summary: Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, prioritizing marine areas for protection is a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems adds complexity to spatial conservation plans. This study developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis that considers future distribution of species and climate-driven changes to identify important areas for conservation, emphasizing the significance of deep seas as priority areas.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Marysia Szymkowiak, Andrew Steinkruger, Kelsi Furman
Summary: This study analyzes local plans for 16 communities and boroughs on the Gulf of Alaska, and explores the relationship between these plans and a climate change plan framework. It evaluates their social resilience capacity with respect to fisheries and marine support industries. The study reveals critical relationships between planning for fisheries and marine support industries and domains of social resilience.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lindsay M. Dreiss, L. Mae Lacey, Theodore C. Weber, Aimee Delach, Talia E. Niederman, Jacob W. Malcom
Summary: Protecting areas for climate adaptation is crucial for species conservation. Current approaches tend to focus on existing spatial patterns, which may not be effective for future needs. The 30 x 30 initiative presents new opportunities to inform the siting of new protections globally and in the US. Based on available data, it is found that current levels of protection do not adequately cover identified climate adaptation areas. Future-minded protections can be established based on the identification of climate refugia and corridors.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Plant Sciences
Amin Rastandeh, Meghann Jarchow
Summary: Although the importance of biodiversity conservation in urban landscapes has been recognized in many forest, desert, and coastal biomes, not much research has been done on urbanization in grasslands and its impacts on biodiversity. In this study, we conducted a pilot spatio-temporal study to assess the effects of land-use and vegetation change on grasslands in the Upper Missouri River Basin under different climate-change scenarios. We found that grassland conversion in urban landscapes was higher compared to the whole region, but this trend was not directly related to urban expansion. Additionally, habitat proximity was negatively correlated with urban expansion. This study emphasizes the need to measure changes in habitat composition and configuration to better understand opportunities and limitations for biodiversity conservation in urban landscapes.
URBAN FORESTRY & URBAN GREENING
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
C. J. Batchelor, S. A. Marcott, I. J. Orland, F. He, R. L. Edwards
Summary: The connection between abrupt high-latitude warming during the last glacial period-Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events-and rapid climate changes at lower latitudes has revealed inter-hemispheric teleconnections in the ocean-atmosphere system. We examined a speleothem in Wisconsin that grew from 70-50 thousand years ago and found large negative oxygen isotope (δO-18) excursions that correlate with DO events recorded in the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project. Climate simulations suggest that abrupt DO warming would increase the δO-18 of annual precipitation in the study area, supporting the observed negative δO-18 excursions.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Lotem Taylor, Sarah P. Saunders, Joanna X. Wu, Brooke L. Bateman, Joanna Grand, William DeLuca, Chad B. Wilsey
Summary: This study compared two methods for prioritizing areas for bird conservation under climate change and found that the complementarity-based optimizations method was more effective, with higher species diversity and better habitat condition.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, Robin Chadwick
Summary: Research suggests that future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector will weaken, largely due to anomalous circulation changes over the North Pacific. The study also indicates that changes in forcing from equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more significant than changes in the global basic state background circulation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Guo Li, Nengwen Xiao, Zunlan Luo, Dongmei Liu, Zhiping Zhao, Xiao Guan, Chunxin Zang, Junsheng Li, Zehao Shen
Summary: This study mapped and predicted range changes of gymnosperm species in China, proposed a multi-criteria framework for identifying conservation priority areas, and highlighted gaps in gymnosperm conservation. Results indicated that the centers of gymnosperm species richness in China were in subtropical mountains, with many species facing threats from future climate changes.
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
(2021)
Article
Ecology
R. Travis Belote, Kevin Barnett, Katherine Zeller, Angela Brennan, Josh Gage
Summary: This study compares different model scenarios to identify important areas for ecological connectivity across North America. The results show that the effects of moving window size are more evident than the effects of different resistance surfaces. The outputs highlight the importance of small and isolated fragments of relatively natural land, as well as broad regions for maintaining connectivity across natural areas in North America.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Rebecca M. Niemiec, Rebecca Gruby, Michael Quartuch, Christina T. Cavaliere, Tara L. Teel, Kevin Crooks, Jonathan Salerno, Jennifer N. Solomon, Kelly W. Jones, Michael Gavin, Anna Lavoie, Amanda Stronza, Leah Meth, Ash Enrici, Katie Lanter, Christine Browne, Jonathan Proctor, Michael Manfredo
Summary: The value of social science in conservation is highlighted, yet its diverse approaches are inconsistently incorporated in initiatives. A framework is developed to expand the role of social science in conservation planning processes, with a case study on wolf reintroduction in Colorado demonstrating the opportunities and challenges of applying the framework.
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Luis Carrasco, Monica Papes, Kimberly S. Sheldon, Xingli Giam
Summary: Global efforts to expand the protected area network have been made to protect biodiversity from climate change impacts, but further improvements are needed to address challenges posed by climate change.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2021)
Review
Biodiversity Conservation
Carlos Carroll, Reed F. Noss
Summary: The expansion of global protected areas is crucial in addressing threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. Challenges from climate change to concepts like rewilding have been identified, emphasizing the importance of protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, environmental gradients, and areas connecting suitable climates. Additionally, attention must be given to maintain ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks that are resilient to uncertain climate trends.
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. L. Harper, A. Cunsolo, A. Babujee, S. Coggins, E. De Jongh, T. Rusnak, C. J. Wright, M. Dominguez Aguilar
Summary: Since the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report in 2014, there has been significant advancement in climate change and health research in North America, particularly in the areas of climate change impacts, heat-related mortality and morbidity, and respiratory illness. However, research gaps still exist regarding the impacts of climate change on mental health, nutrition, and foodborne disease.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Summary: Understanding the statistical properties of extreme weather events and their underlying physical processes is crucial for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated hazards. Recent studies have shown that large deviation theory (LDT) is useful for investigating persistent extreme events and estimating long return periods. In this study, we utilize LDT and a state-of-the-art Earth system model to analyze the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave. We find that the occurrence of the heatwave can be attributed to climate variability, but its probability is greatly amplified by ongoing climate change. We also examine the spatial coherence and the role of the Rocky Mountains in influencing extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
R. F. Warren, N. R. Edwards, F. Babonneau, P. M. Bacon, J. P. Dietrich, R. W. Ford, P. Garthwaite, D. Gerten, S. Goswami, A. Haurie, K. Hiscock, P. B. Holden, M. R. Hyde, S. R. Joshi, A. Kanudia, M. Labriet, M. Leimbach, O. K. Oyebamiji, T. Osborn, B. Pizzileo, A. Popp, J. Price, G. D. Riley, S. Schaphoff, P. Slavin, M. Vielle, C. Wallace
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2019)
Review
Multidisciplinary Sciences
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, T. Guillen Bolanos, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. A. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, C. W. Hope, A. J. Payne, H. -O. Poertner, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Temitope Samuel Egbebiyi, Olivier Crespo, Christopher Lennard, Modathir Zaroug, Grigory Nikulin, Ian Harris, Jeff Price, Nicole Forstenhaeusler, Rachel Warren
Article
Environmental Sciences
A. T. Kennedy-Asser, O. Andrews, D. M. Mitchell, R. F. Warren
Summary: The UKCP18 simulations generally perform as well as or better than CMIP5 models in reproducing observed spatial patterns of UK climate relating to extreme heat, with RMSE values on average similar to 30% less than for the CMIP5 models. Increasing spatial resolution in UKCP18 simulations is shown to yield a minor improvement in model performance compared to observations.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sally Brown, Katie Jenkins, Philip Goodwin, Daniel Lincke, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Richard S. J. Tol, Rhosanna Jenkins, Rachel Warren, Robert J. Nicholls, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Agustin Sanchez Arcilla, Ivan D. Haigh
Summary: This paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise across different warming levels and socio-economic scenarios. It shows that annual sea flood damage costs are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise. Low income countries could reduce flood costs by protecting now, but without further adaptation, they will face growing risks and costs.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Daoping Wang, Katie Jenkins, Nicole Forstenhausler, Tianyang Lei, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Rhosanna Jenkins, Dabo Guan
Summary: This study assesses the economic impacts of different warming scenarios on rice and wheat yields in several countries, with findings showing positive effects on GDP and welfare in China at lower warming levels, but negative impacts in other countries due to declining crop yields and increasing prices. The method used in the study provides a more in-depth understanding of the global market response and regional consequences of agricultural impacts.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhiqiang Yin, Yixin Hu, Katie Jenkins, Yi He, Nicole Forstenhausler, Rachel Warren, Lili Yang, Rhosanna Jenkins, Dabo Guan
Summary: This study presents an integrated flood risk analysis framework for Brazil, China, India, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Ghana, calculating the economic damages of fluvial flooding at different warming levels. The research emphasizes the importance of including socio-economic development when estimating direct and indirect flood losses, and highlights China and India as the countries with the largest total flood losses in absolute terms.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rhosanna L. M. Jenkins, Rachel F. Warren, Jeff T. Price
Summary: This study projected significant reductions in species richness in Kenya's Tana River Basin with just 2 degrees C warming, especially impacting birds and plants. Potential climate refugia were identified within the basin, but often overlapped with agricultural areas and were mostly outside protected areas. Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 'well below 2 degrees C' significantly reduced risks to biodiversity.
Article
Environmental Sciences
R. Warren, C. Hope, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, D. P. Van Vuuren, K. Jenkins
Summary: This study quantifies global and regional aggregate damages under different levels of global warming, finding that limiting warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius can greatly reduce GDP losses compared to 4 degrees Celsius warming.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yi He, Desmond Manful, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhausler, Timothy J. Osborn, Jeff Price, Rhosanna Jenkins, Craig Wallace, Dai Yamazaki
Summary: This study projects an increase in fluvial flood risks due to climate change. Warmer temperatures will lead to a decrease in the return periods of 100-year floods, exposing more people to flood risks. Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius can reduce the increase in risks.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Gwilym Owen, Gareth J. Griffith, Oliver Andrews, Y. T. Eunice Lo, Dann M. Mitchell, Katie Jenkins, Rachel F. Warren
Summary: Summer heat extremes in the UK pose a risk to health, especially in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. This study assessed the future variations of different heat elements across the UK using regional climate model simulations. The results showed that southern regions will experience greater increases in maximum temperatures, while northern regions will face greater increases in humidity. When combined with socioeconomic factors, hotspots of high heat stress risk were identified in London, the Midlands, eastern England, and southern and eastern coastal regions.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Rachel Warren, Oliver Andrews, Sally Brown, Felipe J. Colon-Gonzalez, Nicole Forstenhausler, David E. H. J. Gernaat, P. Goodwin, Ian Harris, Yi He, Chris Hope, Desmond Manful, Timothy J. Osborn, Jeff Price, Detlef Van Vuuren, Rebecca Mary Wright
Summary: The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 'well below 2 degrees C' and to 'pursue efforts' to limit it to 1.5 degrees C. By quantifying risk-related metrics, this study demonstrates that reducing warming to 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C can significantly reduce risks related to water scarcity, heat stress, flooding, drought, and the economy.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhausler, Craig Wallace, Rhosanna Jenkins, Timothy J. Osborn, D. P. Van Vuuren
Summary: This study quantifies the impacts of different global warming levels on severe droughts in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India). The findings show that current climate change mitigation pledges would lead to severe drought in all studied countries, while meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement would greatly reduce drought risks for these countries.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Zinta Zommers, Philippe Marbaix, Andreas Fischlin, Zelina Z. Ibrahim, Sean Grant, Alexandre K. Magnan, Hans-Otto Poertner, Mark Howden, Katherine Calvin, Koko Warner, Wim Thiery, Zita Sebesvari, Edouard L. Davin, Jason P. Evans, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Brian C. O'Neill, Anand Patwardhan, Rachel Warren, Maarten K. van Aalst, Margot Hulbert
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2020)