Prediction of daily mean and one-hour maximum PM2.5 concentrations and applications in Central Mexico using satellite-based machine-learning models

Background Machine-learning algorithms are becoming popular techniques to predict ambient air PM2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolutions (1 x 1 km) using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD). Most machine-learning models have aimed to predict 24 h-averaged PM2.5 concentrations (mean PM2.5) in high-income regions. Over Mexico, none have been developed to predict subdaily peak levels, such as the maximum daily 1-h concentration (max PM2.5). Objective Our goal was to develop a machine-learning model to predict mean PM2.5 and max PM2.5 concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area from 2004 through 2019. Methods We present a new modeling approach based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and inverse-distance weighting that uses AOD, meteorology, and land-use variables. We also investigated applications of our mean PM2.5 predictions that can aid local authorities in air-quality management and public-health surveillance, such as the co-occurrence of high PM2.5 and heat, compliance with local air-quality standards, and the relationship of PM2.5 exposure with social marginalization. Results Our models for mean and max PM2.5 exhibited good performance, with overall cross-validated mean absolute errors (MAE) of 3.68 and 9.20 mu g/m(3), respectively, compared to mean absolute deviations from the median (MAD) of 8.55 and 15.64 mu g/m(3). In 2010, everybody in the study region was exposed to unhealthy levels of PM2.5. Hotter days had greater PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we found similar exposure to PM2.5 across levels of social marginalization. Significance Machine learning algorithms can be used to predict highly spatiotemporally resolved PM2.5 concentrations even in regions with sparse monitoring. Impact Our PM2.5 predictions can aid local authorities in air-quality management and public-health surveillance, and they can advance epidemiological research in Central Mexico with state-of-the-art exposure assessment methods.

Automated summary

This study developed machine learning models to predict mean PM2.5 and max PM2.5 concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area and found associations between hotter days and higher PM2.5 concentrations, as well as similar PM2.5 exposure across levels of social marginalization.