The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation. Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Automated summary

This study reveals significant regional disparities in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and the potential to buy time depending on climate scenarios. It shows that droughts beyond historical variation ranges could occur more frequently under future climate conditions. The study also identifies several subcontinental-scale regions, including Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, that are projected to face unprecedented drought conditions within the next 30 years regardless of emission scenarios. The results highlight the benefits of lower emission pathways and the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.