期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 137, 期 -, 页码 200-212出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.07.074
关键词
Real option model; Uncertainty analysis; CCS retrofitting investment; Carbon market; Subsidy for electricity generation; China's coal power plants
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71273153, 71525007]
- National Science and Technology Support Program [2013BAK15B01]
- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Fund of China [2014036]
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an attractive option to help reduce China's carbon emission. This paper analyzes the impacts of subsidy for electricity generation on CCS retrofitting investment and carbon abatement in China's coal power plants, considering the coaction of carbon market and subsidy policy. To this end, this paper builds up a real option model, considering carbon prices, electricity prices and coal prices' uncertainties. For decision of CCS investment, we consider two important aspects: whether to invest and when to invest, i.e. CCS investment's potential and timing. Some major findings include: 1) The impacts of subsidy on CCS investment and carbon abatement are affected by carbon market conditions: initial carbon price can determine the magnitude of subsidy's impacts, while carbon prices' uncertainty level can determine subsidy's marginal impacts. 2) Subsidy from $0.01 to $0.05/kWh can raise CCS investment potential by 9.66%-39.18%, shorten CCS investment period by 0.39-1.95 years and bring carbon abatement potential of 0.10-1.89 GtCO(2), considering different carbon market conditions. 3) With the benchmark carbon market and affordable subsidies, triggered CCS investments in coal power plants have an economical-efficient carbon abatement potential up to 20% of China's carbon emission in 2030. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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