期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 118, 期 -, 页码 37-47出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.12.093
关键词
Carbon intensity; Economic growth; Structural transformation; Threshold cointegration model; Monte Carlo simulations
资金
- Xiamen University - Newcastle University Joint Strategic Partnership Fund
- Grant for Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy [1260-Z0210011]
- Xiamen University Flourish Plan Special Funding [1260-Y07200]
- China Sustainable Energy Program [G-1506-23315]
This paper specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration to analyze the nonlinear relationship between carbon intensity and economic growth in China. The tests and estimated results clearly confirm that fast paced economic growth-that is the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than 9.053%-impede the reduction of carbon intensity because it weakens the negative effects of tertiary industry development and energy efficiency on carbon intensity while it also increases the positive effect of unclean energy mix on carbon intensity. In order to find a moderate range of economic growth rate that is both beneficial for industrial structuring and energy mix transformation, and at the same time, facilitate reduction in carbon intensity, Monte Carlo simulations are employed. The results show when the growth fate of GDP is between 7% and 8.4%, it can promote structural bonus of industrial structure and energy consumption structure on carbon intensity, and carbon intensity in 2020 would decline by about 40.60% compared to 2005 level. These conclusions mean it is necessary for China to carefully set its economic growth target through transformation and optimization of its economic structure and energy mix in order to continuously reduce carbon intensity. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据