Development and Validation of an Artificial Intelligence-Based Model to Predict Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease After Sleeve Gastrectomy

Purpose Prediction of the onset of de novo gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) after sleeve gastrectomy (SG) would be helpful in decision-making and selection of the optimal bariatric procedure for every patient. The present study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict the onset of GERD after SG to help clinicians and surgeons in decision-making. Materials and Methods A prospectively maintained database of patients with severe obesity who underwent SG was used for the development of the AI model using all the available data points. The dataset was arbitrarily split into two parts: 70% for training and 30% for testing. Then ranking of the variables was performed in two steps. Different learning algorithms were used, and the best model that showed maximum performance was selected for the further steps of machine learning. A multitask AI platform was used to determine the cutoff points for the top numerical predictors of GERD. Results In total, 441 patients (76.2% female) of a mean age of 43.7 +/- 10 years were included. The ensemble model outperformed the other models. The model achieved an AUC of 0.93 (95%CI 0.88-0.99), sensitivity of 79.2% (95% CI 57.9-92.9%), and specificity of 86.1% (95%CI 70.5-95.3%). The top five ranked predictors were age, weight, preoperative GERD, size of orogastric tube, and distance of first stapler firing from the pylorus. Conclusion An AI-based model for the prediction of GERD after SG was developed. The model had excellent accuracy, yet a moderate sensitivity and specificity. Further prospective multicenter trials are needed to externally validate the model developed.

Automated summary

An artificial intelligence-based model was developed to predict the onset of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) after sleeve gastrectomy (SG). The model showed excellent accuracy, but moderate sensitivity and specificity.