Did Ohio's Vaccine Lottery Increase Vaccination Rates? A Pre-Registered, Synthetic Control Study

Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is critical to containing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. To increase vaccination rates, the State of Ohio launched a million dollar lottery in May 2021. Following a pre-registered analysis, we estimate the effects of Ohio's lottery program Vax-a-Million on COVID-19 vaccination rates by comparing it to a synthetic control composed of eight other states. We find a statistically insignificant 1.3% decrease in the full vaccination rate in Ohio at the end of the lottery period. We investigate the robustness of our conclusion to model specifications through a multiverse analysis of 216 possible models, including longer time periods and alternative vaccination measures. The majority (88%) find small negative effects in line with the results of our pre-registered model. While our results are most consistent with a decrease in vaccination rate, they do not allow a firm conclusion on whether the lottery increased or decreased vaccine uptake.

Automated summary

Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is crucial in reducing the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Ohio implemented a million dollar lottery program to incentivize vaccination. However, the study found that the lottery had a statistically insignificant impact on the overall vaccination rates, with only a 1.3% decrease in Ohio.