A Risk-Based Approach to Multi-Stage Probabilistic Transmission Network Planning

As a result of the power industry restructuring and the increasing integration of large-scale renewable energy, power transmission expansion planning (TEP) has become a complicated decision-making process requiring risk analysis. This paper proposes a chance constrained approach to TEP. The probabilistic load curtailment degree is quantified by a capped load curtailment probability, which is incorporated into our multi-stage TEP model. Moreover, the system dynamic performance including security and stability is also realistically considered in our model through an iterative procedure. To enhance the computational efficiency, probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is adopted in conjunction with an evolutionary algorithm (EA). In case studies, different TEP approaches are compared, and effects of different parameter settings are also investigated. According to the simulation results, our model can not only provide information regarding risks, but also help network planners make trade-offs to select the most flexible and cost-effective planning schemes.