期刊
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
卷 32, 期 2, 页码 1064-1072出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2572159
关键词
Cyber-physical system; dependent failure; non-sequential; reliability; sequential
资金
- Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC) [T-53]
- National Priorities Research Program (NPRP) under Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation) [NPRP 7-106-2-053]
Cyber-induced dependent failures are important to be considered in composite system reliability evaluation. Because of the complexity and dimensionality, Monte Carlo simulation is a preferred method for composite system reliability evaluation. The non-sequential Monte Carlo or sampling generally requires less computational and storage resources than sequential techniques and is generally preferred for large systems where components are independent or only a limited dependency exists. However, cyber-induced events involve dependent failures, making it difficult to use sampling methods. The difficulties of using sampling with dependent failures are discussed and a solution is proposed. The basic idea is to generate a representative state space from which states can be sampled. The probabilities of representative state space provide an approximation of the joint distribution and are generated by a sequential simulation in this paper but it may be possible to find alternative means of achieving this objective. The proposed method preserves the dependent features of cyber-induced events and also improves the efficiency. Although motivated by cyber-induced failures, the technique can be used for other types of dependent failures as well. A comparative study between a purely sequential methodology and the proposed method is presented on an extended Roy Billinton Test System.
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