The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Where and why do conifer forests persist in refugia through multiple fire events?

(2021) William M. Downing et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Rocky Mountain subalpine forests now burning more than any time in recent millennia

(2021) Philip E. Higuera et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

(2020) Monica G. Turner et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

(2020) Rupert Seidl et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

(2020) Katharina Albrich et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: research advances and frontiers

(2020) Kendra K. McLauchlan et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

(2020) Justin T. Martin et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

(2020) Nate G. McDowell et al.   SCIENCE

Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

(2020) Robert A. Andrus et al.   Ecosphere

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

(2020) Jonathan D Coop et al.   BIOSCIENCE

Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water‐limited pine forests

(2020) Kelly E. Gleason et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

An alternate vegetation type proves resilient and persists for decades following forest conversion in the North American boreal biome

(2020) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions

(2020) Christopher R. Schwalm et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

(2020) William R. L. Anderegg et al.   SCIENCE

Landscape-scale forest loss as a catalyst of population and biodiversity change

(2020) Gergana N. Daskalova et al.   SCIENCE

The propagule doesn’t fall far from the tree, especially after short‐interval, high‐severity fire

(2020) Nathan S. Gill et al.   ECOLOGY

Warmer and drier fire seasons contribute to increases in area burned at high severity in western US forests from 1985‐2017

(2020) S. A. Parks et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Record‐setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States

(2020) Philip E. Higuera et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

(2020) Andreas Sommerfeld et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models

(2020) Gunnar Petter et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Topographic position amplifies consequences of short-interval stand-replacing fires on postfire tree establishment in subalpine conifer forests

(2020) Tyler J. Hoecker et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains

(2020) Paul D. Henne et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Can we manage a future with more fire? Effectiveness of defensible space treatment depends on housing amount and configuration

(2020) Kristin H. Braziunas et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change

(2020) John W. Williams et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying

(2019) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration

(2019) Kimberley T. Davis et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change

(2019) Frances C. Moore et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene

(2019) Maria Dornelas et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests

(2019) Monica G. Turner et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Remotely Sensed Vegetation Greenness Across Yellowstone National Park

(2019) Michael Notaro et al.   Remote Sensing

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

(2019) Rupert Seidl et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass

(2019) César Terrer et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climatic Correlates of White Pine Blister Rust Infection in Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

(2019) David P. Thoma et al.   Forests

Can wildland fire management alter 21st‐century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA ?

(2019) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Short-interval wildfire and drought overwhelm boreal forest resilience

(2019) Ellen Whitman et al.   Scientific Reports

Exploring invasibility with species distribution modeling: How does fire promote cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum ) invasion within lower montane forests?

(2018) Jamie L. Peeler et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

It takes a few to tango: changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers

(2018) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   ECOLOGY

Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment

(2018) Robert A. Andrus et al.   ECOLOGY

Shifting baseline syndrome: causes, consequences, and implications

(2018) Masashi Soga et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Limited evidence for CO2 -related growth enhancement in northern Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine populations across climate gradients

(2018) Charlotte C. Reed et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Past vegetation dynamics in the Yellowstone region highlight the vulnerability of mountain systems to climate change

(2018) Virginia Iglesias et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Movers and Stayers: Novel Assemblages in Changing Environments

(2018) Richard J. Hobbs et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Abrupt Change in Ecological Systems: Inference and Diagnosis

(2018) Zak Ratajczak et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century

(2018) Josep M. Serra-Diaz et al.   Scientific Reports

A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

(2018) Giuseppe Amatulli et al.   Scientific Data

Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks

(2018) Patrick Gonzalez et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Looking beyond the mean: Drivers of variability in postfire stand development of conifers in Greater Yellowstone

(2018) Kristin H. Braziunas et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity

(2018) Zachary A. Holden et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

(2018) Connor Nolan et al.   SCIENCE

Aspen recruitment in the Yellowstone region linked to reduced herbivory after large carnivore restoration

(2018) Luke E. Painter et al.   Ecosphere

Use of landscape simulation modeling to quantify resilience for ecological applications

(2018) Robert E. Keane et al.   Ecosphere

Examining forest resilience to changing fire frequency in a fire-prone region of boreal forest

(2018) Sarah J. Hart et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Tree rings provide no evidence of a CO₂ fertilization effect in old-growth subalpine forests of western Canada

(2018) Oleksandra Hararuk et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Populus tremuloides seedling establishment: An underexplored vector for forest type conversion after multiple disturbances

(2017) Nathan S. Gill et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

(2017) Jake M. Alexander et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The Curious Case of Projected Twenty-First-Century Drying but Greening in the American West

(2017) Justin S. Mankin et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

(2017) Thomas Kitzberger et al.   PLoS One

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities

(2017) Christopher P. Nadeau et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Forest disturbances under climate change

(2017) Rupert Seidl et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

(2017) Jason A. Clark et al.   Ecosphere

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

(2016) Donald McKenzie et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Assessing resilience in long-term ecological data sets

(2016) F. Müller et al.   ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Twenty-four years after the Yellowstone Fires: Are postfire lodgepole pine stands converging in structure and function?

(2016) Monica G. Turner et al.   ECOLOGY

Modeling for Understanding v. Modeling for Numbers

(2016) Edward B. Rastetter   ECOSYSTEMS

To Model or not to Model, That is no Longer the Question for Ecologists

(2016) Rupert Seidl   ECOSYSTEMS

Bistability, Spatial Interaction, and the Distribution of Tropical Forests and Savannas

(2016) Arie Staal et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Shifting ecological filters mediate postfire expansion of seedling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) in Yellowstone

(2016) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience

(2016) Jill F Johnstone et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

(2016) Dominik Thom et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

High and dry: post-fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post-fire drought and large stand-replacing burn patches

(2016) Brian J. Harvey et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the decline of obligate seeder forests

(2016) David M. J. S. Bowman et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

(2016) Brian J. Harvey et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

(2016) Anthony LeRoy Westerling   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

(2016) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

No growth stimulation of Canada’s boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2fertilization

(2016) Martin P. Girardin et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

(2016) Karin L. Riley et al.   Ecosphere

Regeneration of montane forests 24 years after the 1988 Yellowstone fires: A fire-catalyzed shift in lower treelines?

(2016) Daniel C. Donato et al.   Ecosphere

Topographic and fire weather controls of fire refugia in forested ecosystems of northwestern North America

(2016) Meg A. Krawchuk et al.   Ecosphere

Burning the legacy? Influence of wildfire reburn on dead wood dynamics in a temperate conifer forest

(2016) Daniel C. Donato et al.   Ecosphere

The rise of novelty in ecosystems

(2015) Volker C. Radeloff et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Using custom scientific workflow software and GIS to inform protected area climate adaptation planning in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

(2015) N.B. Piekielek et al.   Ecological Informatics

Interval squeeze: altered fire regimes and demographic responses interact to threaten woody species persistence as climate changes

(2015) Neal J Enright et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species

(2015) Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Ectomycorrhizal fungal spore bank recovery after a severe forest fire: some like it hot

(2015) Sydney I Glassman et al.   ISME Journal

Fire legacies impact conifer regeneration across environmental gradients in the U.S. northern Rockies

(2015) Kerry B. Kemp et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change

(2015) Daniel E. Schindler et al.   SCIENCE

Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance

(2015) C. I. Millar et al.   SCIENCE

Forest health and global change

(2015) S. Trumbore et al.   SCIENCE

Feedbacks and landscape-level vegetation dynamics

(2015) David M.J.S. Bowman et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions

(2015) Tom H. Oliver et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Conceptualizing Forest Degradation

(2015) Jaboury Ghazoul et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

(2015) W. Matt Jolly et al.   Nature Communications

Disturbance legacies increase the resilience of forest ecosystem structure, composition, and functioning

(2014) Rupert Seidl et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Fire severity and tree regeneration following bark beetle outbreaks: the role of outbreak stage and burning conditions

(2014) Brian J. Harvey et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Resistance and resilience to changing climate and fire regime depend on plant functional traits

(2014) Neal J. Enright et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Evolutionary ecology of resprouting and seeding in fire-prone ecosystems

(2014) Juli G. Pausas et al.   NEW PHYTOLOGIST

Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

(2014) Rupert Seidl et al.   Nature Climate Change

The Impacts of Changing Disturbance Regimes on Serotinous Plant Populations and Communities

(2013)   BIOSCIENCE

Influence of recent bark beetle outbreak on fire severity and postfire tree regeneration in montane Douglas-fir forests

(2013) Brian J. Harvey et al.   ECOLOGY

Evaluating post-outbreak management effects on future fuel profiles and stand structure in bark beetle-impacted forests of Greater Yellowstone

(2013) Daniel C. Donato et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Sustainability in forest management and a new role for resilience thinking

(2013) Lucy Rist et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Mega-fires, tipping points and ecosystem services: Managing forests and woodlands in an uncertain future

(2013) Mark A. Adams   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate

(2013) Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps

(2013) Ché Elkin et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

(2013) Eric J. Gustafson   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Ecologists should not use statistical significance tests to interpret simulation model results

(2013) J. Wilson White et al.   OIKOS

Is Alaska’s Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold?

(2012) Daniel H. Mann et al.   ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH

Bark beetle effects on fuel profiles across a range of stand structures in Douglas-fir forests of Greater Yellowstone

(2012) Daniel C. Donato et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

An innovative aerial assessment of Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem mountain pine beetle-caused whitebark pine mortality

(2012) William W. Macfarlane et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics

(2012) Rupert Seidl et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Postfire changes in forest carbon storage over a 300-year chronosequence ofPinus contorta-dominated forests

(2012) Daniel M. Kashian et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, USA

(2012) Grant P. Elliott   ECOLOGY

Consequences of spatial heterogeneity for ecosystem services in changing forest landscapes: priorities for future research

(2012) Monica G. Turner et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

The Role of Thresholds and Fine-Scale Processes in Driving Upper Treeline Dynamics in the Bighorn Mountains, Wyoming

(2012) Grant P. Elliott   PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY

Prediction of soil properties using a process-based forest growth model to match satellite-derived estimates of leaf area index

(2012) Nicholas C. Coops et al.   REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts

(2012) Terry P. Hughes et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events

(2012) Stephen Carpenter et al.   Sustainability

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

(2011) William F. Laurance et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Twenty Years After the 1988 Yellowstone Fires: Lessons About Disturbance and Ecosystems

(2011) William H. Romme et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Once burned, twice shy: Repeat fires reduce seed availability and alter substrate constraints on Picea mariana regeneration

(2011) Carissa D. Brown et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of stabilizing processes

(2011) Francisco Lloret et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

(2011) Martin Simard et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications

(2011) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling

(2011) John T. Abatzoglou   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

How does increased fire frequency affect carbon loss from fire? A case study in the northern boreal forest

(2011) C. D. Brown et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE

Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary

(2011) John W. Williams et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

(2011) Anthony L. Westerling et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A process-based approach to estimate lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) distribution in the Pacific Northwest under climate change

(2010) Nicholas C. Coops et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests?

(2010) Martin Simard et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world1

(2010) Monica G. Turner   ECOLOGY

Linking tree-ring and sediment-charcoal records to reconstruct fire occurrence and area burned in subalpine forests of Yellowstone National Park, USA

(2010) Philip E. Higuera et al.   HOLOCENE

Long-term relations among fire, fuel, and climate in the north-western US based on lake-sediment studies

(2009) Cathy Whitlock et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

(2009) S. T. Jackson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Modeling the effects of fire and climate change on carbon and nitrogen storage in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands

(2008) E. A. H. SMITHWICK et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Holocene vegetation–fire–climate linkages in northern Yellowstone National Park, USA

(2008) Mariana A. Huerta et al.   PALAEOGEOGRAPHY PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY PALAEOECOLOGY