Increasing discharge from the Mackenzie River system to the Arctic Ocean

The Mackenzie River, Canada's longest and largest river system, provides the greatest Western Hemisphere discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Recent reports of declining flows have prompted concern because (1) this influences Arctic Ocean salinity, stratification and polar ice; (2) a major tributary, the Peace River, has large hydroelectric projects, and further dams are proposed; and (3) the system includes the extensive and biodiverse Peace-Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie deltas. To assess hydrological trends over the past century that could reflect climate change, we analysed historic patterns of river discharges. We expanded the data series by infilling for short gaps, calculating annual discharges from early summer-only records (typical r(2)>0.9), coordinating data from sequential hydrometric gauges (requiring r(2)>0.8) and advancing the data to 2013. For trend detection, Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to non-parametric Kendall's v and Spearman's rho tests. There was no overall pattern for annual flows of the most southerly Athabasca River (1913-2013), while the adjacent, regulated Peace River displayed increasing flows (1916-2013, p < 0.05). These rivers combine to form the Slave River, which did not display an overall trend (1917-2013). The more northerly, free-flowing Liard River is the largest tributary and displayed increasing annual flows (1944-2013, p < 0.01, similar to 3.5% per decade) because of increasing winter, spring, and summer flows, and annual maximum and minimum flows also increased. Following from the tributary contributions, the Mackenzie River flows gradually increased (Fort Simpson 1939-2013, p < 0.05, similar to 1.5% per decade), but the interannual patterns for the Liard and other rivers were correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, complicating the pattern. This conclusion of increasing river flows to the Arctic Ocean contrasts with some prior reports, based on shorter time series. The observed flow increase is consistent with increasing discharges of the large Eurasian Arctic drainages, suggesting a common northern response to climate change. Analyses of historic trends are strengthened with lengthening records, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation influence, we recommend century-long records for northern rivers. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.