Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: Research suggests that an integrated learning strategy combining frequency dependent bias and payoff bias may be more effective than relying on either bias alone. The magnitude of conformist bias affects evolutionary dynamics, with an intermediate level of conformity being most adaptive in resisting low-payoff variants while promoting the spread of high-payoff variants.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2022)
Review
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kevin Gross, Carl T. Bergstrom
Summary: The study suggests that ex ante and ex post peer review motivate scientists toward different sets of scientific questions. The personal and peer scientific beliefs of reviewers can influence their rankings of proposals and preferences for research questions. Researchers are faced with the challenge of finding projects that can survive both modes of review, creating a tension between ex ante and ex post review.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Xuecheng Fan, Zeshui Xu
Summary: This study combines intuitionistic fuzzy theory and evidence reasoning method, improves their advantages and disadvantages in information expression and aggregation, proposes a double-level multi-attribute group decision-making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and evidence reasoning, and verifies its effectiveness and stability through a detailed case study. It is expected to become a useful tool for multi-attribute group decision-making.
COGNITIVE COMPUTATION
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Guang Zou, Michael Havbro Faber, Arturo Gonzalez, Kian Banisoleiman
Summary: This paper introduces a holistic decision modeling and optimization approach, considering the combined effects of interventions and dependencies in intervention decisions. Compared to a sequential decision making approach, the proposed method yields optimal decisions associated with higher utilities.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Merve Fritsch, Veith Weilnhammer, Paul Thiele, Andreas Heinz, Philipp Sterzer
Summary: This study aimed to investigate the impact of noisy sensory information and environmental uncertainties on perceptual decisions. The results showed that under high sensory uncertainty, learned audiovisual associations had a greater influence on perceptual decisions, and this effect was even larger under high environmental uncertainty. Additionally, individual tendencies to change beliefs affected the degree to which observers relied on learned beliefs in making perceptual decisions. While the weighting of sensory information and learned beliefs was modulated by their respective uncertainties, belief learning was not influenced by sensory uncertainty. Understanding the interactive effects of sensory and environmental uncertainties in perception could provide insights into aberrant perceptual inference in psychopathology such as schizophrenia.
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Ze Hong
Summary: This paper explores the belief in dream interpretation across cultures and throughout history. It argues that the cognitive aspect of dream interpretation, influenced by psychological and social factors, plays a significant role in why people view dreams as foretelling the future. The author analyzes a large dataset of dream occurrences in Chinese historical records and suggests that the success of dream prediction is largely due to fabrication, retrospective inference, and under-reporting of failures. The paper also explores the potential decline of dream interpretation in traditional China.
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Haidong Yang, Luying Chen, Biyu Liu, Athanasios Migdalas
Summary: This study focuses on the suppliers' optimal emergency procurement/production decision (EPD) with information updating in the event of sudden accidents (SAs). The research proposes a real-time updated emergency decision-making model (EDM) based on Stackelberg game and Bayesian inference, and quantitatively analyzes the value of information updating and critical factors affecting the suppliers' optimal EPD. Results show that information is crucial for effective decision-making, and the proposed model helps suppliers determine when and how many products to procure/produce to maximize profits. The cost parameters significantly impact the suppliers' EPD with information updating.
COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Paul Christoph Gembarski, Stefan Plappert, Roland Lachmayer
Summary: Making design decisions involves high uncertainty, and complexity management aims to reduce uncertainty to minimize or avoid the need for design changes. Bayesian decision network helps engineers make decisions under uncertainty and contributes to knowledge formalization in development projects.
JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Education, Scientific Disciplines
David A. Cook, Ian G. Hargraves, Christopher R. Stephenson, Steven J. Durning
Summary: This study analyzed patient-clinician interactions in management reasoning by observing simulated encounters. It identified problems and successful communication and examined them through the lens of two shared decision-making models. The findings highlighted the importance of effective communication in management reasoning.
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong, Sergey Zinin
Summary: This article uses historical texts from traditional China to examine why ineffective fetal sex prognostication practices persist across societies and overestimated in their predictive accuracy. The authors discuss the uncertainty and reporting bias in historical texts and how imperfect information processing contributes to the persistence of ineffective technologies like divination and magic.
AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST
(2023)
Article
Behavioral Sciences
David A. Illingworth, Karen M. Feigh
Summary: The study found that using composite impact maps can increase the utility of selected sites, increase re-planning decisions, reduce information display views, and decrease workload, especially when evaluating more attributes.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Patrik Byholm, Martin Beal, Natalie Isaksson, Ulrik Lotberg, Susanne Akesson
Summary: This study analyzed tracking data from Caspian Terns and found that the survival and learning of migration routes in juveniles depend on following a parent. The results suggest that parental care plays a crucial role in the migration process of these birds.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Yanwei Zhai, Zheng Lv, Jun Zhao, Wei Wang, Henry Leung
Summary: This paper proposes a data-driven continuous decision-making model with self-adaption and interpretability, which effectively handles the challenges in continuous production processes. Experimental results demonstrate high reasoning accuracy, anti-noise ability, and interpretability of the proposed method.
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Chemical
Tiantian Zhu, Stein Haugen, Yiliu Liu
Summary: In order to prevent major accidents in process industries, it is crucial to provide decision-makers with accurate risk information to aid in risk-related decisions. A framework is proposed to organize and provide risk information so that decision-makers can more effectively detect, assess, and address risk issues.
JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES
(2021)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: This study presents a detailed ethnographic research on the magic and divination practices among the Nuosu people in southwest China. It explores the reasons behind the prevalence of these objectively ineffective practices in a modern society. The study finds that in the belief system of the Nuosu, ghosts, divination, and magical healing rituals are closely interconnected, providing meaning to these practices and supported by individuals' everyday experiences.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2022)
Article
Biology
Ze Hong
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2020)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: The study reveals that belief in the efficacy of treatments affects their actual effectiveness, forming a reciprocal causal relationship. There exists a unique equilibrium between subjective belief and actual efficacy, depending on how beliefs are constructed. While the placebo effect primarily suppresses the spread of new technologies, it may also enhance the adoption of superior technological variants under specific parameter combinations.
Article
Religion
Ze Hong
Summary: This paper formalizes the concept of sympathetic magical action, explaining its manipulative aspect through a combination of environmental regularities and human causal cognition. The author provides ample ethnographic and historical evidence to support their arguments, and re-classifies sympathetic magic into four distinct types for analytical convenience.
RELIGION BRAIN & BEHAVIOR
(2022)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: This study presents a detailed ethnographic research on the magic and divination practices among the Nuosu people in southwest China. It explores the reasons behind the prevalence of these objectively ineffective practices in a modern society. The study finds that in the belief system of the Nuosu, ghosts, divination, and magical healing rituals are closely interconnected, providing meaning to these practices and supported by individuals' everyday experiences.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2022)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: Research suggests that an integrated learning strategy combining frequency dependent bias and payoff bias may be more effective than relying on either bias alone. The magnitude of conformist bias affects evolutionary dynamics, with an intermediate level of conformity being most adaptive in resisting low-payoff variants while promoting the spread of high-payoff variants.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2022)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong, Sergey Zinin
Summary: This article uses historical texts from traditional China to examine why ineffective fetal sex prognostication practices persist across societies and overestimated in their predictive accuracy. The authors discuss the uncertainty and reporting bias in historical texts and how imperfect information processing contributes to the persistence of ineffective technologies like divination and magic.
AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST
(2023)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: When people get ill, they try different treatments in a specific order and attribute their eventual recovery to the treatment that was tried last. This misattribution leads to the coexistence of both ineffective and effective medical treatments in the population, depending on factors such as variability in effect timing and individual patience.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2023)
Article
Anthropology
Ze Hong
Summary: This paper explores the establishment and acquisition of word meaning, as well as the factors that ensure a uniform understanding of word meaning in a linguistic community. Drawing from cultural attraction theory, the author uses folk biology as an example domain to address these questions by treating meaning acquisition as an inferential process. The study reveals significant variation in how individuals understand inclusive biological labels such as plant and animal, which can be attributed to the salience of these labels in contemporary ethnic minority groups in southwest China. Historical evidence also demonstrates that the meaning of inclusive terms is often unstable, but can be sustained through cultural institutions such as religion and education, which provide situations for unambiguous inference of linguistic labels.
HUMAN NATURE-AN INTERDISCIPLINARY BIOSOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
(2023)
Editorial Material
Religion
Ze Hong
RELIGION BRAIN & BEHAVIOR
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Biological
Callie H. Burt
Summary: Burt's article fails to acknowledge the significant intellectual contribution of sociogenomics in understanding genetic evolution in contemporary human populations. Despite social scientists' focus on non-evolutionary research, there is a need to recognize the role of sociogenomics in answering important evolutionary questions.
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES
(2023)