期刊
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
卷 9, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.660579
关键词
debris flow; hazard assessment; Karakoran highway; empirical model; flow-R
资金
- Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) [2019QZKK0902]
- International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China [2018YFE0100100]
- Sichuan Foundation of Excellent Scientists [2019YFH0038]
This research introduces a new method for assessing debris flow hazard levels in the Gaizi-Bulunkou Section of the Karakoram highway, taking into account the flow paths and spreading areas. The empirical model used in the study shows high accuracy and sensitivity in predicting debris flow spreading probability, allowing for effective classification of hazard levels in the study area.
Highways frequently run through the flow and accumulation areas of debris flow gullies and thus are susceptible to debris flow hazards. Assessing debris flows along highways can provide references for highway planners and debris flow control, emergency management. However, the existing assessment methods mostly neglect the essential information of the flow paths and spreading areas of debris flows at the regional scale. Taking the Gaizi Village-Bulunkou Township Section (hereinafter referred to as the Gaizi-Bulunkou Section) of the Karakoram highway as the study area, this research introduces a simple empirical model (the Flow-R model) and establishes a method for assessing the debris flow hazard level. The main processes include data collection, inventory of former events, calculating source areas and spreading probability, verification of the model, extraction of hazard assessment factors, and calculation of debris flow hazard levels. The results show that: 1) the accuracy, sensitivity, and positive predictive power of the Flow-R model in simulating the debris flow spreading probability of the study area were 81.87, 70.80 and 72.70%, respectively. The errors mainly occurred in the debris flow fans. 2) The calculation results make it possible to divide debris flow hazard levels into four levels. N5, N19, and N28 gullies had the highest hazard level during the study period. 3) In the Gaizi-Bulunkou Section of the Karakoram highway, during the study period, the highways with very high, high, medium, and low hazards were 4.33, 0.62, 1.41, and 1.68 km in length, respectively.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据