A novel Covid-19 model with fractional differential operators with singular and non-singular kernels: Analysis and numerical scheme based on Newton polynomial

To capture more complexities associated to the spread of Covid-19 within a given population, we considered a system of nine differential equations that include a class of susceptible, 5 sub-classes of infected population, recovered, death and vaccine. The mathematical model was suggested with a lockdown function such that after the lockdown, the function follows a fading memory rate, a concept that is justified by the effect of social distancing that suggests, susceptible class should stay away from infected objects and humans. We presented a detailed analysis that includes reproductive number and stability analysis. Also, we introduced the concept of fractional Lyapunov function for Caputo, Caputo-Fabrizio and the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivatives. We established the sign of the fractional Lyapunov function in all cases. Additionally we proved that, if the fractional order is one, we recover the results Lyapunov for the model with classical differential operators. With the nonlinearity of the differential equations depicting the complexities of the Covid-19 spread especially the cases with nonlocal operators, and due to the failure of existing analytical methods to provide exact solutions to the system, we employed a numerical method based on the Newton polynomial to derive numerical solutions for all cases and numerical simulations are provided for different values of fractional orders and fractal dimensions. Collected data from Turkey case for a period of 90 days were compared with the suggested mathematical model with Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative and an agreement was reached for alpha 1:009. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Automated summary

This study analyzed the spread of Covid-19 in a population using a complex system of multiple differential equations, proposed a mathematical model with lockdown function, introduced fractional Lyapunov function, and derived numerical solutions and simulations using a numerical method. By comparing with data from the Turkey case, the effectiveness of the mathematical model was demonstrated, showing the potential of the model in practical applications.