期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 43, 期 3, 页码 1357-1363出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067392
关键词
atmospheric rivers; extreme precipitation; climate change; global warming; moisture transport; flooding
资金
- U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy
- U.S. Department of Energy [DE-AC05-76RLO1830]
Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall in western North America. The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last 20years of the twentieth and 21st centuries under Representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). However, the associated extreme precipitation days increase only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of 8% and 7% in the changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days compared to only about 1% difference from accountings for model biases. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability, and effects of model biases highlight the robust AR responses to global warming.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据