4.6 Article

Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova

期刊

SUSTAINABILITY
卷 13, 期 12, 页码 -

出版社

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/su13126596

关键词

COVID-19; sustainable mobility; trip cancellation; travel demand; public transport; micro mobility

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The diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to fundamental changes in travel habits, with limited focus on predicting future new normal conditions for travel decisions. Factors impacting travel decisions vary between students and employees, with promotion of sustainable transportation options proving to be effective in fostering sustainable mobility habits. Countermeasures at study/work places have only a slight effect on travel decisions.
The diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic has induced fundamental changes in travel habits. Although many previous authors have analysed factors affecting observed variations in travel demand, only a few works have focused on predictions of future new normal conditions when people will be allowed to decide whether to travel or not, although risk mitigation measures will still be enforced on vehicles, and innovative mobility services will be implemented. In addition, few authors have considered future mandatory trips of students that constitute a great part of everyday travels and are fundamental for the development of society. In this paper, logistic regression models were calibrated by using data from a revealed and stated-preferences mobility survey administered to students and employees at the University of Padova (Italy), to predict variables impacting on their decisions to perform educational and working trips in the new normal phase. Results highlighted that these factors are different between students and employees; furthermore, available travel alternatives and specific risk mitigation measures on vehicles were found to be significant. Moreover, the promotion of the use of bikes, as well as bike sharing, car pooling and micro mobility among students can effectively foster sustainable mobility habits. On the other hand, countermeasures on studying/working places resulted in a slight effect on travel decisions.

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