Prediction of the effects of climate change on Sechium edule (Jacq.) Swartz varietal groups in Mexico

Climate change has significant impacts on biodiversity and, particularly, on agriculture. In this study, the impact of climate change on five varietal groups of Sechium edule, up to the year 2050, was determined through the application of the HadGEM2-CC model based on bioclimate layers. The varietal groups, nigrum minor, albus dulcis and nigrum xalapensis, will lose more than 50 % of their potential current distribution due to a high impact in both the rcp 45 and the rcp 85 scenarios. These two varietal groups also have a limited distribution, which makes them highly susceptible. In the case of nigrum spinosum, a loss under 50 % is predicted with scenario rcp 45. The varietal group that increases its distribution in 11 % is virens levis. The model forecasts significant impacts up to the year 2050; however, the groups evaluated present high genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity which allow adapting to new conditions that may contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change.