Penetrance of ATM Gene Mutations in Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Different Measures of Risk

The gene responsible for ataxia-telangiectasia syndrome, ATM, is also an intermediate-risk breast cancer (BC) susceptibility gene. Numerous studies have been carried out to determine the contribution of ATM gene mutations to BC risk. Epidemiological cohorts, segregation analyses, and case-control studies reported BC risk in different forms, including penetrance, relative risk, standardized incidence ratio, and odds ratio. Because the reported estimates vary both qualitatively and quantitatively, we developed a general model allowing the integration of the different types of cancer risk available in the literature. We performed a comprehensive meta-analysis identifying 19 studies, and used our model to obtain a consensus estimate of BC penetrance. We estimated the cumulative risk of BC in heterozygous ATM mutation carriers to be 6.02% by 50 years of age (95% credible interval: 4.58-7.42%) and 32.83% by 80 years of age (95% credible interval: 24.55-40.43%). An accurate assessment of cancer penetrance is crucial to help mutation carriers make medical and lifestyle decisions that can reduce their chances of developing the disease.