期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 12, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1
关键词
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资金
- National Science and Technology Major Project [2018ZX10713001-005, 2016ZX10004222-009]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [91846302, 81773498]
- China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases [6NU2GGH000961-05-02]
- Emergency Response Mechanism Operation Program [131031001000200001]
- Beijing Natural Science Foundation [7192136]
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1134076, INV-024911]
- Public Health System Construction Project, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention [131031001000190045]
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-024911] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Research suggests that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have significantly reduced influenza activity in China and the United States during the 2019-2020 season, indicating a potential impact of NPIs on the spread of infectious diseases.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to interrupt COVID-19 transmission may also impact the spread of other infectious diseases. Here, the authors estimate that influenza activity in China and the United States reduced by up to 80% when NPIs were in place in the 2019-2020 season.
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