4.7 Article

Fuzzy Bayesian network based on an improved similarity aggregation method for risk assessment of storage tank accident

期刊

PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
卷 149, 期 -, 页码 817-830

出版社

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2021.03.017

关键词

Fuzzy Bayesian network; Similarity aggregation method; Storage tank accident; Risk assessment

资金

  1. National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [51904284]
  2. Opening Project of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control [HCSC201902]
  3. Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [WK2320000050]
  4. Natural Science and Engineering Council of Canada
  5. Canada Research Chair (CRC) Program

向作者/读者索取更多资源

This study proposes an improved SAM based FBN model to better handle various types of uncertainties, which is significant in predicting and analyzing storage tank accidents. This method can more accurately identify key events and causes of storage tank accidents, providing important support information for optimizing risk management strategies.
Fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) has been widely used for risk assessment of accidents in process industries to deal with complex causality and uncertainty arising from complex interdependence among risk factors, insufficient data and complex environments. The similarity aggregation method (SAM) is a method of aggregating fuzzy opinions considering consensus degree. However, SAM does not take into account the impact of individual differences on consistency, which will bring a certain degree of uncertainty. Therefore, this work proposes an improved SAM based FBN model to better deal with various types of uncertainty. This methodology makes the prediction results of the storage tank accident more accurate and reliable. The result analysis indicates that the improved SAM is of significance to improve the reliability of the input data of FBN. Then, the critical analysis of the root node shows the effectiveness and reliability of FBN in identifying the critical events of the storage tank accident. The proposed method can predict the probability of storage tank accidents, determine the proportion of main contributing factors and identify the critical causes of storage tank accidents more reliably and accurately. It can provide important supporting information for decision-makers to optimize risk management strategies. ? 2021 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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