期刊
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
卷 184, 期 3, 页码 920-940出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12691
关键词
expert elicitation; expert judgement; prior aggregation; sample size calculation; subjective prior distributions; subjective probability
This study compares aggregated prior distributions formed by different methods with individual expert priors, finding that the Sheffield elicitation framework performs the best among them.
Subjective Bayesian prior distributions elicited from experts can be aggregated together to form group priors. This paper compares aggregated priors formed by equal weight aggregation, the classical method and the Sheffield elicitation framework to each other and individual expert priors, using an expert elicitation carried out for a clinical trial. Aggregation methods and individual expert prior distributions are compared using proper scoring rules to compare the informativeness and calibration of the distributions. The three aggregation methods outperform the individual experts, and the Sheffield elicitation framework performs best among them.
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