Article
Humanities, Multidisciplinary
Tal Ulus, Ronnie Ellenblum
Summary: This article discusses the impact of climate anomalies on social stability and structural changes, highlighting that gradual and more usual climatic events may have a more profound impact on societies. It argues that extended climate anomalies affecting food availability are the ones that most affect human civilizations, leading to migration, violence, and ultimately structural changes in societies.
HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sonia Griffen, Stacy-ann Robinson
Summary: This article fills the research gap on post-disaster mobilities in small island developing states and provides a Caribbean perspective on environmental risk and response. Through analyzing three major disasters in the region, it identifies factors that worsen inequalities at the individual and household levels.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
(2023)
Review
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Celia McMichael
Summary: The impacts of climate change on human migration and mobility are expected to increase and alter due to factors such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events. This review focuses on recent research in Asia, Africa, and Pacific Island countries, examining the links between human mobility and anthropogenic climate change, and the health consequences of displacement, planned relocation, migration, and migration into sites of climate risk. The findings emphasize the importance of climate-sensitive and migrant-inclusive health care in a warming world.
ANNUAL REVIEW OF PUBLIC HEALTH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
James R. Elliott, Zheye Wang
Summary: The government-funded retreat of homeowners from flood-prone housing is a globally ascendant policy of climate adaptation. Yet, little is known about the participants in terms of their risk tolerance, relocation choices, and the racial and ethnic disparities in their responses. This study combines residential history data, flood risk estimates, and local context indicators to examine how retreat is unfolding in the United States. Results show that voluntary retreat is a localized process that reduces household flood risk. However, there is racial segregation in these movements, with homeowners in majority-White communities more likely to stay in high-risk areas and less likely to relocate to nearby non-White areas.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geography
Sean F. Kennedy
Summary: The article discusses the recent trends in the Indonesian cocoa sector and argues that fixing labor and capital in place has become a core strategy for corporate entities to manage the threat of economic displacement. While this strategy helps maintain cocoa production in the face of economic and environmental disruptions, it also increases vulnerability of smallholder producers to impacts of climate change.
ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Deidre Zoll, Katherine Lieberknecht, R. Patrick Bixler, J. Amy Belaire, Shalene Jha
Summary: Where landowners, non-profit organizations, and government agencies prioritize conservation activities can have significant implications for people, ecosystems, and climate resilience. Our study examines the relationships between biodiversity priorities, social vulnerability, climate risks, and population growth in Texas, and identifies geographies that can support multiple goals. We show that existing conservation priorities can perpetuate environmental disparities, particularly for disadvantaged populations, and propose effective methods to address social impacts while prioritizing conservation and climate adaptation needs.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nadia A. Seeteram, Kevin Ash, Brett F. Sanders, Jochen E. Schubert, Katharine J. Mach
Summary: This study demonstrates a framework for estimating the direct and indirect impacts of sea-level rise on mobility using flood exposure modeling and social vulnerability assessment. The research focuses on Miami-Dade County, USA, and shows that as sea-level rise increases, the population faces the risks of displacement or being trapped, leading to stress on residents and the economy.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mathew E. Hauer, Dean Hardy, Scott A. Kulp, Valerie Mueller, David J. Wrathall, Peter U. Clark
Summary: The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Lisa Thalheimer, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Filiz Garip
Summary: Compound drought events in a warming climate can amplify vulnerability and drive forced migration, with consecutive drought events exacerbating structural vulnerabilities limiting adaptation options for migrants.
Article
Food Science & Technology
Michelle Tigchelaar, William W. L. Cheung, Essam Yassin Mohammed, Michael J. Phillips, Hanna J. Payne, Elizabeth R. Selig, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Muhammed A. Oyinlola, Thomas L. Frolicher, Jessica A. Gephart, Christopher D. Golden, Edward H. Allison, Abigail Bennett, Ling Cao, Jessica Fanzo, Benjamin S. Halpern, Vicky W. Y. Lam, Fiorenza Micheli, Rosamond L. Naylor, U. Rashid Sumaila, Alessandro Tagliabue, Max Troell
Summary: Aquatic food systems are at risk due to climate change, and efforts to build climate resilience must focus on reducing social vulnerabilities. Systemic interventions are needed to enhance the resilience of aquatic and terrestrial food systems for the benefit of achieving Sustainable Development Goals.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Lyu Yarong, Chen Minpeng
Summary: This paper utilized original survey data from Shandong province in China to examine local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks and their adaptive behaviors. The results demonstrate that farmers' risk perception significantly impacts their adoption of adaptive measures, with males and better educated farmers showing a greater willingness to take action to avert risks.
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
(2021)
Review
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Maya Moore, Dennis Wesselbaum
Summary: The purpose of this article is to review the key contributions in the climate-migration literature and understand the impact of environmental factors on migration. The findings suggest that temperature has a significant effect on migration, but the evidence for precipitation is inconclusive. Weather-related disasters also play a role in migration, and it is important to examine the effects of different types of disasters. Unlike previous survey papers, this article focuses on understanding how climatic factors specifically affect migration. Finally, several open questions for future research are identified.
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Studies
Angela Lara, Leandro del Moral
Summary: This paper examines the challenges faced by Seville in improving urban resilience to hydro-climatic risks. It finds that even though nature-based solutions are prioritized by international institutions, gray infrastructure remains the preferred choice for responsible institutions. The study highlights the conflicting perceptions of risks, contradictions between institutional discourses and practices, and limitations of public participation processes as factors hindering the implementation of green infrastructure.
Article
Development Studies
Tim Forsyth, Constance L. McDermott, Rabindra Dhakal
Summary: Equitable resilience is an important focus of development policy, but the framing of equity itself can shape the target and scope of development efforts. Universalistic assumptions may overlook dynamic and intersectional influences on risk and vulnerability. Efforts that focus on caste and gender as indicators of social marginalization may overlook changes in vulnerability contexts and increasing vulnerability to climate change. Critical attention is needed to understand how normative framings of equity shape equitable resilience.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Dilshad Ahmad, Muhammad Afzal
Summary: Rural riverbank communities are experiencing psychological, social and economic distress due to riverbank erosion, leading to displacement, food insecurity and limited employment opportunities. Proper policy interventions focusing on human capital development, credit access and institution services are essential to improve livelihood and food security of these vulnerable households. Increasing forestry in riverbank areas and investing in training and education programmes are also crucial for reducing environmental pollution and enhancing livelihood and food security for erosion-prone riverbank households.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
A. R. Bell, D. J. Wrathall, V Mueller, J. Chen, M. Oppenheimer, M. Hauer, H. Adams, S. Kulp, P. U. Clark, E. Fussell, N. Magliocca, T. Xiao, E. A. Gilmore, K. Abel, M. Call, A. B. A. Slangen
Summary: The study presents a counterintuitive finding that in the future, despite intensified flooding caused by sea-level rise, the population in Bangladesh will still continue to migrate towards vulnerable coastlines. The model shows that while flooding accelerates the transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood options are abundant in coastal cities, leading to some populations being "trapped" due to flood losses.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Review
Food Science & Technology
C. M. Godde, D. Mason-D'Croz, D. E. Mayberry, P. K. Thornton, M. Herrero
Summary: The article reviews the risks of climate-related impacts on global livestock systems, indicating that the entire supply chain will be affected. Adaptation choices in the future need to consider impacts from various possible futures.
GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY-AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Christopher B. Barrett, Jessica Fanzo, Mario Herrero, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Alexander Mathys, Philip Thornton, Stephen Wood, Tim G. Benton, Shenggen Fan, Late Lawson-Lartego, Rebecca Nelson, Jianbo Shen, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Philip Thornton, Gerald Nelson, Dianne Mayberry, Mario Herrero
Summary: The study examines the impact of anthropogenic climate change on domesticated livestock worldwide, particularly the increase in extreme heat stress risk for outdoor animals. By the end of this century, it is projected that the risk of heat stress will significantly increase in many parts of the tropics and some temperate zones.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2021)
Review
Plant Sciences
Jana Kholova, Milan Oldrich Urban, James Cock, Jairo Arcos, Elizabeth Arnaud, Destan Aytekin, Vania Azevedo, Andrew P. Barnes, Salvatore Ceccarelli, Paul Chavarriaga, Joshua N. Cobb, David Connor, Mark Cooper, Peter Craufurd, Daniel Debouck, Robert Fungo, Stefania Grando, Graeme L. Hammer, Carlos E. Jara, Charlie Messina, Gloria Mosquera, Eileen Nchanji, Eng Hwa Ng, Steven Prager, Sindhujan Sankaran, Michael Selvaraj, Francois Tardieu, Philip Thornton, Sandra P. Valdes-Gutierrez, Jacob van Etten, Peter Wenzl, Yunbi Xu
Summary: The CGIAR crop improvement programs aim to meet multiple objectives including meeting farmers' needs, nutrition, health, poverty reduction, climate adaptation, and environmental health. Success is highlighted in the importance of multidisciplinary teams working towards common objectives.
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL BOTANY
(2021)
Article
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Rhys Manners, Elke Vandamme, Julius Adewopo, Philip Thornton, Michael Friedmann, Sebastien Carpentier, Kodjovi Senam Ezui, Graham Thiele
Summary: Climate change is projected to negatively impact food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially root, tuber, and banana crops in the Great Lakes Region. Research demonstrates that shifting planting schedules and utilizing different crop varieties can improve crop suitability under future climates.
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Christian L. E. Franzke, Alessio Ciullo, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Denise Margaret Matias, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Anton Orlov, Shona K. Paterson, Juergen Scheffran, Jana Sillmann
Summary: This article explores the importance of the interplay between human societies and Earth systems in creating tipping points and cascading effects, and how they affect sustainability and security. The current generation of climate-economy models do not adequately account for these interactions and feedbacks, leading to an underestimation of climate and societal risks.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Kara Morgan, Zachary A. Collier, Elisabeth Gilmore, Ketra Schmitt
Summary: Emerging risks are characterized by a lack of data, rapidly changing information, and the absence of existing predictive models. Effective decision-making for these risks requires scoping the decision context and shared responsibility between analysts and decision-makers in rapidly evolving situations. Simplified analytical approaches may be more suitable for emerging risks, providing increased transparency, ease of explanation, and the ability to conduct new analyses quickly. Continued dialogue and discussion among decision and risk analysis communities can enhance the credibility and usefulness of models for emerging risks.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Carolyn Kousky, Travis St Clair
Summary: Climate hazards can pose potential risks to fiscal stability by adding to existing pressures on the revenues and expenditures of local governments. Incorporating these risks into local budgeting and strategic planning would enable a more comprehensive evaluation of the benefits derived from climate adaptation and risk reduction efforts.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amina Maharjan, Sagar Adhikari, Rida Ahmad, Usman Ahmad, Zulfiqar Ali, Sugat Bajracharya, Jeevan Baniya, Sadikshya Bhattarai, Amit Gautam, Elisabeth Gilmore, Hein Min Ko, Nilar Myat, Theingi Myint, Parth Sarathi Mahapatra, Arabinda Mishra, Chandni Singh
Summary: Urban poor populations in South Asia are disproportionately exposed to high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). This study investigates the relationship between occupation, exposure patterns to PM2.5, and the resulting impacts on individual and household levels. The findings show that low-income populations are more likely to be exposed to higher concentrations of PM2.5 due to their occupation, leading to adverse health effects and increased vulnerability at the household level. Targeted interventions, such as improved social safety nets, are necessary to mitigate these risks.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Gokce Akin-Olcum, Madanmohan Ghosh, Elisabeth Gilmore, Peter Johnston, Mohammad M. Khabbazan, Ruben Lubowski, Margaret Mccallister, Nick Macaluso, Sonja Peterson, Malte Winkler, Maosheng Duan, Mengyu Li, Ramiro Parrado, Sebastian Rausch
Summary: This paper presents an analysis of the overall and distributional welfare effects of different multi-regional emissions trading coalitions compared to unilateral action. The results show that a global market leads to the highest welfare gains, which increase with the stringency of targets. All regional coalitions also result in welfare gains, but lower than the global market. The models reveal variability in the gains for participants, with some regional arrangements providing more benefits than a global market, while others may face modest losses compared to domestic reductions. The scenario with a joint China-European Union emissions trading system in all sectors consistently shows favorable outcomes for participants, offering the highest economic gains per unit of emissions abated.
CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kristina Petrova, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Havard Hegre, Elisabeth A. Gilmore
Summary: Armed conflict has a negative impact on economic growth, while economic growth is associated with a lower occurrence of armed conflict. Using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), this study simulates the incidence of armed conflict and its effect on economic growth. The analysis reveals that current GDP per capita projections for the 21st century are overly optimistic as they neglect the detrimental effects of conflict. Taking into account the impact of conflict, expected income is on average 25% lower across countries. Particularly, countries with a higher likelihood of armed conflict in the future (SSP3 and SSP4) experience a stronger correction. Regional patterns show that countries currently in conflict suffer higher conflict burdens and decreased economic growth by the end of the century. This research highlights the increased vulnerability of marginalized societies to climate change compared to existing income projections.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Halvard Buhaug, Tor A. Benjaminsen, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Cullen S. Hendrix
Summary: This essay discusses the extent to which climate impacts and responses may produce severe risks to peace. It provides a conceptual discussion of what risks to peace entail and explores the conditions under which climate-related risks could become severe. Based on empirical research, it presents three illustrative scenarios to examine the implications of alternative warming and adaptation trajectories for the prospect of future peace. The essay concludes by reflecting on the implications for future research needs.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mario Herrero, Philip K. Thornton, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Jeda Palmer, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Prajal Pradhan, Christopher B. Barrett, Tim G. Benton, Andrew Hall, Ilje Pikaar, Jessica R. Bogard, Graham D. Bonnett, Brett A. Bryan, Bruce M. Campbell, Svend Christensen, Michael Clark, Jessica Fanzo, Cecile M. Godde, Andy Jarvis, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Alexander Mathys, C. Lynne McIntyre, Rosamond L. Naylor, Rebecca Nelson, Michael Obersteiner, Alejandro Parodi, Alexander Popp, Katie Ricketts, Pete Smith, Hugo Valin, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Joost Vervoort, Mark van Wijk, Hannah H. E. van Zanten, Paul C. West, Stephen A. Wood, Johan Rockstrom
Summary: Food system innovations are crucial in achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals, but they can lead to profound changes that impact different parts of the global food system simultaneously. It is important to embed innovations as part of systemic changes to avoid unintended negative consequences and address emerging trade-offs involving social aspects like inequality and social justice. Well-planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and transparent science targets at the local level are essential in managing trade-offs with undesirable outcomes.
LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
(2021)
