A Bayesian Account of Establishing

When a proposition is established, it can be taken as evidence for other propositions. Can the Bayesian theory of rational belief and action provide an account of establishing? I argue that it can, but only if the Bayesian is willing to endorse objective constraints on both probabilities and utilities, and willing to deny that it is rationally permissible to defer wholesale to expert opinion. I develop a new account of deference that accommodates this latter requirement.

Automated summary

The article discusses the problem of establishing in Bayesian theory. The author argues that Bayesian theory can provide a meaningful account of establishing, but only if it accepts objective constraints on both probabilities and utilities, and rejects wholesale deference to expert opinion. The author also proposes a new account of deference that meets this latter requirement.