期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 144, 期 11, 页码 2329-2337出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268816000558
关键词
Ebola virus; modelling
The 2014 Ebola epidemic was the largest on record. It evidenced the need for improved models of the spread of Ebola. In this research we focus on modelling Ebola within a small village or community. Specifically, we investigate the potential of basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models to describe the initial Ebola outbreak, which occurred in Meliandou, Guinea. Data from the World Health Organization is used to compare the accuracy of various models in order to select the most accurate models of transmission and disease-induced responses. Our results suggest that (i) density-dependent transmission and mortality-induced behavioural changes shaped the course of the Ebola epidemic in Meliandou, while (ii) frequency-dependent transmission, disease-induced emigration, and infection-induced behavioural changes are not consistent with the data from this epidemic.
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