Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data

We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams-Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.

Automated summary

In this article, a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease using Caputo sense is discussed. The basic reproduction number is computed and stability results are derived. The existence and uniqueness of solution results are proven via fixed point theory, and the approximate solution of the proposed model is obtained using the fractional Adams-Bashforth method. Illustrative numerical results are depicted in plots to show COVID-19 transmission dynamics, and comparisons are made with reported real data for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.