Article
Business, Finance
Dongxu Zhao, Kai Li
Summary: This paper develops a simple heterogeneous agent model with bounded rationality and adaptive behavior, incorporating a feedback loop that amplifies shocks and leads to large price fluctuations. Estimating the model to the data shows that the feedback loop helps explain the large variations in expected returns.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Wang Xianjia, Xue Linzhao, Zhipeng Yang, Yang Liu
Summary: This paper introduces an adaptive learning framework for agents with bounded rationality to learn from dynamic games and make decisions accordingly. The framework allows agents to form beliefs based on their recognitive abilities and past experiences, while considering the tradeoff between current payoff and belief updated. The Boundedly Rational Multiagent Learning (BRML) algorithm is proposed and its convergence is proved. Experimental results show that coordination and Pareto optimality can be achieved through the behavior of agents with high recognitive ability.
KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Economics
Francesco Bogliacino, Cristiano Codagnone
Summary: This article discusses the contribution of experimental evidence to the study of human behavior in complex evolving environments and the asymmetric adjustment among different components of economic system, focusing on its potential as an external consistency check for heterodox modeling. It considers evidence on rationality of human agents and the possibility of identifying a microfoundation alternative to homo oeconomicus.
STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Benjamin Patrick Evans, Mikhail Prokopenko
Summary: The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), based on rational expectations and market equilibrium, is the dominant perspective for modelling economic markets. However, the most notable critique of the EMH is the inability to model periods of out-of-equilibrium dynamics without significant external news. When such dynamics emerge endogenously, the traditional economic frameworks prove insufficient. This work offers an alternate perspective explaining the endogenous emergence of punctuated out-of-equilibrium dynamics based on bounded rational agents.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Simon T. van Baal, Lukasz Walasek, Jakob Hohwy
Summary: During a pandemic, people tend to abide by social norms and distance themselves from others to avoid virus transmission, although they have a poor understanding of exponential growth. They tend to underestimate others' self-isolation and only self-isolate sufficiently when faced with lockdowns.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Transportation
Humberto Gonzalez Ramirez, Ludovic Leclercq, Nicolas Chiabaut, Cecile Becarie, Jean Krug
Summary: Recent empirical studies have shown that travelers tend to evaluate relative rather than absolute differences in travel time, with 60.5% choosing the fastest route when it is at least 30% faster than alternatives. Only 10% of individuals consistently chose the fastest route, indicating bounded rationality.
TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR AND SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Political Science
Paolo Belardinelli, Nicola Belle, Paola Cantarelli
Summary: Private sector workers are more likely to prioritize projects that turn success into certainty, while public sector workers show no preference for such projects. This difference may be related to public service motivation, self-determination theory, and identity economics.
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
(2021)
Article
Economics
Jefferson Satoshi Kato, Adriana Sbicca
Summary: This paper demonstrates that trust can emerge from simple dynamics in an agent-based economic model, and shows that bounded rationality can be modeled through an artificial intelligence algorithm in such a model. The study also reveals that natural selection tends to favor more selfish behavior, while learning and group formation can increase trust and reverse selfish behavior in simulations. The level of trust observed in the model with these dynamics is similar to that seen in experiments, and the artificial intelligence algorithm used is able to model bounded rational behavior in agents.
COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Mohammad Nyme Uddin, Hung-Lin Chi, His-Hsien Wei, Minhyun Lee, Meng Ni
Summary: This study investigates the influence of interior layouts on occupants' energy-saving behaviors by integrating different modeling approaches. The results show that adjusting the interior layout can significantly improve building energy performance.
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Leonid Kadinski, Avi Ostfeld
Summary: This study explores contamination events in water networks by drawing analogies from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and using a fuzzy logic system to help water utility managers take actions and warn consumers. The results suggest that placing mobile equipment in real time and warning consumers are essential for responding to a contamination event.
Article
Infectious Diseases
Leigh F. Johnson, Mmamapudi Kubjane, Alex de Voux, Julius Ohrnberger, Mpho Tlali
Summary: This study aims to model the potential effect of alcohol counselling interventions and gender-transformative interventions on reducing HIV transmission. The study found that binge drinking is highly prevalent in South Africa and the effects of alcohol counselling and gender-transformative interventions on HIV incidence are modest. Therefore, further innovation is needed to develop locally-relevant interventions to address binge drinking and inequitable gender norms.
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Nan Zhao, Heap-Yih Chong, Qian Li
Summary: This research explores the diffusion mechanism of helping behavior through dynamic behavioral analysis and simulation. It found that an increase in task dependence and cooperative spillover effect can promote the spread of helping behavior, while an increase in team size, profit-sharing coefficient, and individual fixed income could inhibit such diffusion. This research provides new insights into cultivating a mutual helping culture within project teams.
JOURNAL OF SIMULATION
(2023)
Article
Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
Kasper Lange, Gijsbert Korevaar, Igor Nikolic, Paulien Herder
Summary: Industrial Symbiosis Networks (ISNs) are composed of firms that exchange residual materials and energy locally for economic, environmental, and/or social advantages, but often fail in practice. This study explores how planned behavior affects the robustness of ISNs using an agent-based model (ABM), showing that planned behavior influences cash flow outcomes of social agents and network robustness.
JASSS-THE JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES AND SOCIAL SIMULATION
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Shaofeng Yang, Yoshiki Ogawa, Koji Ikeuchi, Ryosuke Shibasaki, Yuuki Okuma
Summary: This study presents a learning framework using simulation and deep reinforcement learning to help firms develop optimal behavioral strategies during flood recovery. The model can identify industries and regions with high economic damage, which is crucial for developing flood recovery plans.
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Proceedings Paper
Automation & Control Systems
Filippos Fotiadis, Kyriakos G. Vamvoudakis
Summary: This study introduces two frameworks for modeling players' behaviors and choosing their policies in multi-agent dynamic stochastic game settings. By defining multiple levels of rationality and studying different reasoning methods, algorithms for estimating players' policies at each level are proposed and analyzed for convergence properties. Simulation results on a grid world demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed models.
5TH IEEE CONFERENCE ON CONTROL TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS (IEEE CCTA 2021)
(2021)
Article
Nutrition & Dietetics
Anne Carolin Schaefer, Annemarie Schmidt, Angela Bechthold, Heiner Boeing, Bernhard Watzl, Nicole Darmon, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Thomas Heckelei, Sara Monteiro Pires, Perrine Nadaud, Corne van Dooren, Florent Vieux
Summary: In the past, food-based dietary guidelines were derived from systematic reviews on diet-health relationships, but now there is a need to incorporate evidence-based findings from different dimensions. Mathematical methods and data processing are becoming powerful tools in nutritional sciences.
BRITISH JOURNAL OF NUTRITION
(2021)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Catharina Latka, Marijke Kuiper, Stefan Frank, Thomas Heckelei, Petr Havlik, Heinz-Peter Witzke, Adrian Leip, Hao David Cui, Anneleen Kuijsten, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Michiel van Dijk
Summary: Consumer-side interventions using taxes and subsidies are effective in promoting healthier and more environmentally sustainable diets. High tax levels are required to achieve dietary recommendations and policy intervention is needed to address divergence from nutrition guidelines. A coherent policy package is recommended to simultaneously approach nutrition and sustainability objectives.
GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY-AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Review
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Linmei Shang, Thomas Heckelei, Maria K. Gerullis, Jan Boerner, Sebastian Rasch
Summary: The adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies are crucial for transforming current agricultural systems towards sustainability. While existing research mainly focuses on farm-level adoption and agent-based models for diffusion, there is a need for a more integrated approach. Building on empirical farm-level studies and agent-based models, a new conceptual framework is developed to connect the empirical evidence on technology adoption with model-driven investigation of innovation diffusion. This holistic approach can provide insights for policymakers aiming to foster the diffusion of digital technologies in agriculture.
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Martin Paul Tabe-Ojong, Kai Mausch, Tesfaye B. Woldeyohanes, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: Enhancing agricultural productivity through the adoption of improved technologies, especially through increased commercialisation, is a credible pathway to economic development and poverty reduction. Our study finds that the adoption of improved chickpea has a significant positive effect on smallholder commercialisation in Ethiopia, supporting the role of transaction cost in driving market participation.
EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Shyam Kumar Basnet, Torbjoern Jansson, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: The study found that the wealth effects of decoupled direct payments vary greatly among individual farms, but have a small impact on aggregate crop production. Larger farms increase cropping plan diversity when decoupled payments are removed while keeping total land constant.
AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Yaghoob Jafari, Maximilian Koppenberg, Stefan Hirsch, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: The relationship between a firm's markups and its export behavior is explored in this study, with a focus on the French food processing industry. The findings demonstrate that higher markups are associated with increased participation in the export market and greater export intensity. The study also reveals that entering and remaining in the export market leads to higher markups for firms. Additionally, exporters tend to have higher markups compared to non-exporters, even when controlling for firms' productivity differences. These results suggest that trade policies aimed at encouraging firms' export participation may conflict with domestic competition policies targeting price-cost margins.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Martin Paul Tabe Ojong, Miguel Alvarez, Hanna J. Ihli, Mathias Becker, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: The study conducted in Baringo County, Kenya, found significant variations in the severity of Parthenium invasion and the management responses among 530 agro-pastoralists. The choice of control strategies was closely related to household characteristics, with hand weeding being the most common method used. The use of agrochemicals or soil-based control strategies appeared to be influenced by the knowledge and information characteristics of the households.
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Martin Paul Tabe-Ojong, Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, Emmanuel Nshakira-Rukundo, Jan Boerner, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. The findings indicate that COVID-19 has led to disruptions in food access and increased food insecurity in these countries. The study also highlights the different coping strategies adopted by individuals during this period, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying on less nutritious foods.
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Helena Engemann, Yaghoob Jafari, Thomas Heckelei
Summary: Stable trade relations are crucial for economic planning and supply security. The similarity of institutional quality between trading partners and the stability of their economic and institutional environment play significant roles in the duration of trade relationships.
JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, Thomas Heckelei, Sebastian Rasch
Summary: This article uses Bayesian belief network and other methods to study the choices of smallholder farmers in intensification strategies and their determinants. The research findings show that the determinants vary depending on the intensification options.
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Catharina Latka, Alejandro Parodi, Ollie van Hal, Thomas Heckelei, Adrian Leip, Heinz-Peter Witzke, Hannah H. E. van Zanten
Summary: Reducing food waste and reusing it as animal feed can lead to tradeoffs in sustainability. Halving food waste can reduce EU emissions, but also decrease farmers' income. Using food waste as pig feed is economically competitive only when prices are low, but it may result in an increase in pig production and imports of protein feed.
RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Babacar Faye, Heidi Webber, Thomas Gaiser, Christoph Muller, Yinan Zhang, Tommaso Stella, Catharina Latka, Moritz Reckling, Thomas Heckelei, Katharina Helming, Frank Ewert
Summary: Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
(2023)
Article
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Nicolas Gatti, Michael Cecil, Kathy Baylis, Lyndon Estes, Jordan Blekking, Thomas Heckelei, Noemi Vergopolan, Tom Evans
Summary: Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to grow the crops it needs to meet food demand, but low agricultural productivity remains a challenge. A study in Zambia found that approximately one-quarter of the yield gap in maize can be attributed to risk-reducing behavior. Given current conditions, farmers can achieve a maximum yield of 6.75 t/ha without increasing risk, compared to a profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. The risk-related yield gap is expected to worsen with climate change-driven weather extremes.
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Linmei Shang, Christoph Pahmeyer, Thomas Heckelei, Sebastian Rasch, Hugo Storm
Summary: This paper examines the Maximum Acquisition Values (MAVs) and determinants of weeding robots in both organic and conventional sugar beet farming in Germany. The study uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach combined with empirical data and data from weeding robot companies. The results indicate that technology attributes have more influence on MAVs than labor costs, with different factors being influential in organic and conventional farming.
PRECISION AGRICULTURE
(2023)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Thomas Heckelei, Silke Huettel, Martin Odening, Jens Rommel
Summary: There is an ongoing debate in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and publication bias, with no general consensus. This paper provides an overview of the debate and discusses its perception in the agricultural economics community, deriving implications for researchers, contributors to the publication process, and teachers. Through a survey among researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland, the current state of the p-value debate and commonly applied statistical practices are summarized. The paper suggests implications for a long-term cultural change in empirical scientific practices.
GERMAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Jeffrey Wade, Christa Kelleher, Barret L. Kurylyk
Summary: This study developed a physically-based water temperature model coupled with the National Water Model (NWM) to assess the potential for water temperature prediction to be incorporated into the NWM at the continental scale. By evaluating different model configurations of increasing complexity, the study successfully simulated hourly water temperatures in the forested headwaters of H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon, USA, providing a basis for integrating water temperature simulation with predictions from the NWM.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Shaun SH. Kim, Lucy A. Marshall, Justin D. Hughes, Lynn Seo, Julien Lerat, Ashish Sharma, Jai Vaze
Summary: A major challenge in hydrologic modelling is producing reliable uncertainty estimates outside of calibration periods. This research addresses the challenge by improving model structures and error models to more reliably estimate uncertainty. The combination of the RBS model and SPUE produces statistically reliable predictions and shows better matching performance in tests.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Juan Pedro Carbonell-Rivera, Javier Estornell, Luis Angel Ruiz, Pablo Crespo-Peremarch, Jaime Almonacid-Caballer
Summary: This study presents Class3Dp, a software for classifying vegetation species in colored point clouds. The software utilizes geometric, spectral, and neighborhood features along with machine learning methods to classify the point cloud, allowing for the recognition of species composition in an ecosystem.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Zhi Li, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Ilhan Oezgen-Xian, Simin Jiang, Na Zheng
Summary: The optimal strategy for solving the Richards equation numerically depends on the specific problem, particularly when using GPUs. This study investigates the parallel performance of four numerical schemes on both CPUs and GPUs. The results show that the scaling of Richards solvers on GPUs is influenced by various factors. Compared to CPUs, parallel simulations on GPUs exhibit significant variation in scaling across different code sections, with poorly-scaled components potentially impacting overall performance. Nonetheless, using GPUs can greatly enhance computational speed, especially for large-scale problems.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Ludovic Cassan, Leo Pujol, Paul Lonca, Romain Guibert, Helene Roux, Olivier Mercier, Dominique Courret, Sylvain Richard, Pierre Horgue
Summary: Methods and algorithms for measuring stream surface velocities have been continuously developed over the past five years to adapt to specific flow typologies. The free software ANDROMEDE allows easy use and comparison of these methods with image processing capabilities designed for measurements in natural environments and with unmanned aerial vehicles. The validation of the integrated algorithms is presented on three case studies that represent the targeted applications: the study of currents for eco-hydraulics, the measurement of low water flows and the diagnosis of hydraulic structures. The field measurements are in very good agreement with the optical measurements and demonstrate the usefulness of the tool for rapid flow diagnosis for all the intended applications.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Mariia Kozlova, Robert J. Moss, Julian Scott Yeomans, Jef Caers
Summary: This paper introduces a framework for quantitative sensitivity analysis using the SimDec visualization method, and tests its effectiveness on decision-making problems. The framework captures critical information in the presence of heterogeneous effects, and enhances its practicality by introducing a formal definition and classification of heterogeneous effects.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Chad R. Palmer, Denis Valle, Edward V. Camp, Wendy-Lin Bartels, Martha C. Monroe
Summary: Simulation games have been used in natural resource management for education and communication purposes, but not for data collection. This research introduces a new design process which involves stakeholders and emphasizes usability, relevance, and credibility testing criteria. The result is a finalized simulation game for future research.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Tao Wang, Chenming Zhang, Ye Ma, Harald Hofmann, Congrui Li, Zicheng Zhao
Summary: This study used numerical modeling to investigate the formation process of iron curtains under different freshwater and seawater conditions. It was found that Fe(OH)3 accumulates on the freshwater side, while the precipitation is inhibited on the seaward side due to high H+ concentrations. These findings enhance our understanding of iron transformation and distribution in subterranean estuaries.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Grant Hutchings, James Gattiker, Braden Scherting, Rodman R. Linn
Summary: Computational models for understanding and predicting fire in wildland and managed lands are becoming increasingly impactful. This paper addresses the characterization and population of mid-story fuels, which are not easily observable through traditional survey or remote sensing. The authors present a methodology to populate the mid-story using a generative model for fuel placement, which can be calibrated based on limited observation datasets or expert guidance. The connection of terrestrial LiDAR as the observations used to calibrate the generative model is emphasized. Code for the methods in this paper is provided.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Saswata Nandi, Pratiman Patel, Sabyasachi Swain
Summary: IMDLIB is an open-source Python library that simplifies the retrieval and processing of gridded meteorological data from IMD, enhancing data accessibility and facilitating hydro-climatic research and analysis.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Pengfei Wu, Jintao Liu, Meiyan Feng, Hu Liu
Summary: In this paper, a new flow distance algorithm called D infinity-TLI is proposed, which accurately estimates flow distance and width function using a two-segment-distance strategy and triangulation with linear interpolation method. The evaluation results show that D infinity-TLI outperforms existing algorithms and has a low mean absolute relative error.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2024)