期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 11, 期 4, 页码 319-U54出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5
关键词
-
资金
- Volkswagen Foundation
Increases in daily temperature variability reduce economic growth, with the highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions. This impact is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income level.
Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate-economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models. Increases in daily temperature variability could reduce economic growth. Analysis of 40 years of subnational economic data and daily temperature observations from across the world shows that higher temperature variability reduces annual income, with greatest vulnerability in low-latitude regions.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据