Mechanistic polychlorinated biphenyl exposure modeling of mothers in the Canadian Arctic: the challenge of reliably establishing dietary composition

Background: Traditional food (TF) consumption represents the main route of persistent organic pollutant (POP) exposure for indigenous Arctic Canadians. Ongoing dietary transitions away from TFs and toward imported foods (IFs) may contribute to decreasing POP exposures observed in these groups. Methods: To explore this issue, we combined-the global fate and transport model GloboPOP and the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-Human Arctic to simulate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure in two indigenous Arctic Canadian communities from the Inuvik region, Northwest Territories and Baffin region, Nunavut. Using dietary survey information from initial (1996-98) and follow-up (2005-07) biomonitoring campaigns in Inuvik and Baffin, we simulated PCB exposures (PCB-118,-138,-153, and -180) for each individual study participant and also whole study populations. Results: TF intake rates, particularly of marine mammals (MMs), were the most important predictors of modeled PCB exposure, while TF consumption did not associate consistently with measured PCB exposures. Further, reported mean TF intake increased from baseline to follow-up in both Inuvik (from 8 to 183 g d(-1)) and Baffin (from 60 to 134 g d(-1)), opposing both the expected dietary transition direction and the observed decrease in human PCB exposures in these communities (Sigma PCB Inuvik: from 43 to 29 ng g lipid(-1), PCB Baffin: from 213 to 82 ng g lipid(-1)). However dietary questionnaire data are frequently subject to numerous biases (e.g., recall, recency, confirmation), and thus casts doubt on the usefulness of these data. Conclusions: Ultimately, our model's capability to reproduce historic PCB exposure data in these two groups was highly sensitive to TF intake, further underscoring the importance-of accurate TF consumption reporting, and clarification of the role of dietary transitions in future POP biomonitoring of indigenous Arctic populations. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.