4.7 Article

Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation

期刊

ENERGY
卷 111, 期 -, 页码 295-305

出版社

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.131

关键词

Hydropower; Hydroelectricity; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Electric grid

资金

  1. California Energy Commission [CEC PIR-08-33]
  2. National Science Foundation [EAR-1316536]
  3. Directorate For Geosciences
  4. Division Of Earth Sciences [1316536] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Here we translate the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation, and discuss implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and operation in California. We integrate a model of major surface water reservoirs with an electric grid dispatch model, and perturb it by projected runoff based on representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show that climate change and variability is expected to decrease the average annual hydropower generation by 3.1% under RCP4.5, but have negligible impact under the RCP8.5. Model simulations indicate more inflow, caused by more future extremes, in the future that does not necessarily translate to more energy production because of reservoir spillage of water. While overall volume of future available water for energy production may be similar or higher, the delivery of this volume is expected to be significantly more variable in the future climate than the historical average, which has many implications for hydropower generation. Our results show that the expected changes in future climate leads to increases in grid GHG emissions, load following capacity, fuel usage, and costs for the RCP4.5 due to generation shortfall, and very slight increases in the same metrics for the RCP8.5 case due to variability causing decreased efficiencies in load following power plants. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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