Potential role of permafrost thaw on increasing Siberian river discharge

Despite the increasing Siberian river discharge, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate forcing/permafrost thawing is poorly quantified. Based on the Budyko framework and superposition principles, we detected and attributed the changes in streamflow regimes for the three great Siberian rivers (Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) during 1936-2019. Over the past 84 years, streamflow of Ob, Yenisei and Lena has increased by similar to 7.7%, 7.4% and 22.0%, respectively. Intensified precipitation induced by a warming climate is a major contributor to increased annual streamflow. However, winter streamflow appears to be particularly sensitive to temperature. Whilst rising temperature can reduce streamflow via evapotranspiration, it can enhance groundwater discharge to rivers due to permafrost thawing. Currently, every 1 degrees C rise in temperature likely leads to 6.1%-10.5% increase in groundwater discharge, depending on the permafrost condition. For permafrost-developed basins, the contribution to increased streamflow from thawing permafrost will continue to increase in the context of global warming.

Automated summary

The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change and permafrost thawing in Siberia remains not well understood. Using the Budyko framework and superposition principles, researchers found that the streamflow of the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena rivers have increased over the past 84 years, with precipitation induced by warming climate being a major contributing factor. However, winter streamflow is particularly sensitive to temperature, with rising temperatures potentially increasing groundwater discharge due to permafrost thawing.