Article
Immunology
Hangjie Zhang, Aiqing Zhu, George F. Gao, Zhongjie Li
Summary: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common virus that causes acute respiratory tract infections in children. A study analyzing data from 2014 to 2018 in China found an overall infection rate of 17.3% among children under 5 years old, with the majority being hospitalized. Infants under 6 months old were at higher risk of infection, especially during the winter season. Cough was the most common symptom of RSV infection, and infants under 6 months old were more likely to develop bronchopneumonia.
Article
Virology
Gregory J. Walker, Sacha Stelzer-Braid, Caroline Shorter, Claire Honeywill, Matthew Wynn, Christiana Willenborg, Phillipa Barnes, Janice Kang, Nevil Pierse, Julian Crane, Philippa Howden-Chapman, William D. Rawlinson
Summary: Acute respiratory infections are a common illness among children, with respiratory viruses being detected even in asymptomatic periods. This study aimed to define the rates of infection and community epidemiology of respiratory viruses in healthy children to help interpret molecular diagnostic assays. The results showed that respiratory viruses were more likely to be detected during symptomatic periods, and human rhinovirus was the most common virus identified.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Virology
Marina Beretta Duarte, Tatiana Schaffer Gregianini, Leticia G. Martins, Ana Beatriz G. Veiga
Summary: This study investigated the epidemiology of IBV infection in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil over 17 years, and found that IBV infection is associated with age and seasonality, with a high risk of severe infection. The research also highlighted that cardiopathy, metabolic disease, and smoking are risk factors for fatality in IBV infection.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Virology
Yucen Dai, Jiao Zhong, Yajia Lan, Xing Zhao
Summary: The burden of acute respiratory infections is still significant, and the interactions between respiratory viruses may affect their epidemics. However, previous evidence on this topic has been inconclusive. In this study, data from pathogen surveillance in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed to investigate the interactions among respiratory viruses. The findings suggest that most respiratory viruses have positive interactions, while influenza virus and rhinovirus have a negative interaction.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Swati Gupta, Tejas Gupta, Nivedita Gupta
Summary: The global influenza surveillance and response system is a framework coordinated by the WHO to monitor and respond to influenza and other respiratory viruses. However, there are gaps in surveillance due to varying capacities, lack of funding, poor mechanisms, and inconsistent commitments. Strengthening local surveillance is crucial for timely detection of new strains with epidemic potential.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Altahir Abdalla Altahir, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam, Patrick Sebastian, Nor Hisham B. Hamid, Eyman Fathelrhman Ahmed
Summary: This article explores the efficiency of optimizing the placement of surveillance cameras based on deterministic risk estimation and dynamic programming. By prioritizing grid assessment in security sensitive zones and applying dynamic programming algorithm to security quantified maps, the results are compared with heuristic search algorithm outcomes. The overall assessment shows the reliability of the proposed methods' combinations.
IEEE SENSORS JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Lise Beier Havdal, Hakon Boas, Terese Bekkevold, Anne-Marte Bakken Kran, Astrid Elisabeth Rojahn, Ketil Stordal, Sara Debes, Henrik Dollner, Svein Arne Nordbo, Bjorn Barstad, Elisebet Haarr, Liliana Vazquez Fernandez, Britt Nakstad, Christopher Inchley, Elmira Flem
Summary: This study estimated the age-specific incidence of medically attended RSV infections in hospitalised Norwegian children and provided insights into the epidemiology of the disease. The highest incidence rates were observed in 1-month-old children, while lower rates were found in children aged 24-59 months.
JOURNAL OF INFECTION
(2022)
Article
Virology
Monika Redlberger-Fritz, David N. Springer, Stephan W. Aberle, Jeremy V. Camp, Judith H. Aberle
Summary: In 2022, Austria experienced a severe RSV epidemic that started earlier than usual and affected more pediatric patients in emergency departments. Genomic surveillance and phylogenetic analysis revealed that the surge in the 2022/2023 season was driven by RSV-B, while the previous season was driven by RSV-A. The predominant genotype in the 2022/2023 season, RSV-B strain GB5.0.6a, emerged in late 2019. These findings provide valuable insights into RSV evolution and epidemiology for future monitoring and the development of vaccines and therapeutics.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Subhayan De, Alireza Doostan
Summary: This paper explores the impact of l(1)-regularization promoting sparsity on training neural networks with limited training data from high-fidelity models, introducing bi-fidelity strategies guided by parameters from low-fidelity models. The results demonstrate that the proposed bi-fidelity l(1)-regularization strategies produce errors one order of magnitude smaller than networks trained only using high-fidelity model datasets.
JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Wei Cai, Ralf Duerrwald, Barbara Biere, Brunhilde Schweiger, Walter Haas, Thorsten Wolff, Silke Buda, Janine Reiche
Summary: Based on national outpatient surveillance, a novel approach has been developed to determine RSV epidemic seasons in Germany using the RSV positivity rate and its lower limit of 95% confidence interval. This method has been retrospectively evaluated on nine RSV seasons and is also suitable for describing off-season RSV circulation in near real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective application is crucial for timely health service delivery and prevention.
INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Emre Yilmaz, Brian J. German, Amy R. Pritchett
Summary: Fault tree analysis is an important method for modeling and analyzing reliability and failure modes. This paper proposes a new approach of framing the model parameters as random variables to estimate the probability of the top failure event. An uncertainty propagation method using statistical moments is developed for both static and dynamic gates, considering the effects of dependency conditions for different distribution types. By identifying the best set of model parameters within a constrained budget, the uncertainty in the top failure event can be minimized. This optimization is demonstrated through a case study.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2023)
Article
Mathematics
Myladis R. Cogollo, Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra, Abraham J. Arenas
Summary: This paper introduces a mathematical modeling approach based on artificial neural networks to forecast respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases. The study compared the approach with classical statistical techniques, concluding that the results were more accurate. The research conducted in Bogota D.C., Colombia, recommended using a MLP model for training and validation to design public health policies related to RSV.
Article
Immunology
Gail L. Sondermeyer Cooksey, Christina Morales, Lauren Linde, Samuel Schildhauer, Hugo Guevara, Elena Chan, Kathryn Gibb, Jessie Wong, Wen Lin, Brandon J. Bonin, Olivia Arizmendi, Tracy Lam-Hine, Ori Tzvieli, Ann McDowell, Kirstie M. Kampen, Denise L. Lopez, Josh Ennis, Linda S. Lewis, Eyal Oren, April Hatada, Blanca Molinar, Matt Frederick, George S. Han, Martha Sanchez, Michael A. Garcia, Alana McGrath, Nga Q. Le, Eric Boyd, Regina M. Bertolucci, Jeremy Corrigan, Stephanie Brodine, Michael Austin, William R. K. Roach, Robert M. Levin, Brian M. Tyson, Jake M. Pry, Kristin J. Cummings, Debra A. Wadford, Seema Jain
Summary: State and local health departments in California established a surveillance system to monitor the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens. Results from May 10, 2020 to June 12, 2021 showed a SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate of 19.6% among tested specimens and the presence of other respiratory pathogens.
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tamara Kurdyaeva, Andreas Milias-Argeitis
Summary: Studying the time evolution of desired moments in nonlinear systems proves to be a computationally challenging task. Our proposed method offers a more accurate and robust estimation of uncertainty in models through Monte Carlo estimates and extended Kalman filters.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2021)
Article
Microbiology
Lulu Zhang, Yan Xiao, Zichun Xiang, Lan Chen, Ying Wang, Xinming Wang, Xiaojing Dong, Lili Ren, Jianwei Wang
Summary: Respiratory viruses can interfere with each other and affect epidemic trends. Limited understanding exists regarding the interactions between these viruses at the population level. A laboratory-based study in Beijing, China analyzed the respiratory viruses of 14,426 acute respiratory infection patients over ten years. Positive and negative correlations were identified, with influenza viruses and respiratory syncytial virus forming one panel, and other common respiratory viruses forming the other panel. Adjusting for confounding factors, positive interactions between influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus and negative interaction between influenza A and picoRNA were observed. The asynchronous interference of influenza A significantly delayed the peak of beta human coronaviruses epidemic.
MICROBIOLOGY SPECTRUM
(2023)
Editorial Material
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Xiao-Ke Xu, Lin Wang, Sen Pei
Summary: The study uncovered a Simpson's paradox in the association between gross domestic product and coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in Chinese cities, which was attributed to the different patterns of short-range and long-range multiscale mobility from Wuhan to other cities.
JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE
(2021)
Article
Immunology
Yuchen Qi, Jeffrey Shaman, Sen Pei
Summary: The study found that NPIs implemented in 2020 had significant effects on reducing the incidence and transmission of seasonal influenza in the United States, with more than 60% reduction in certain influenza strains during the initial 10 weeks. The reduction in influenza transmission varied geographically, and the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection post-NPIs may lead to large outbreaks, whose scale could be impacted by the duration of intervention and immunity to influenza. Healthcare systems should prepare for potential surges in influenza patients and promote vaccination and ongoing precautions.
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sen Pei, Fredrik Liljeros, Jeffrey Shaman
Summary: Research on transmission of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in healthcare settings using a data-driven model and contact networks to accurately identify colonization probability of patients, showing effectiveness in identifying asymptomatic carriers and supporting targeted interventions.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yiqun Ma, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Robert Dubrow, Kai Chen
Summary: The study found that lower air temperature, lower specific humidity, and lower ultraviolet radiation were significantly associated with increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, with humidity playing the largest role. In total, 17.5% of R-t was attributable to meteorological factors, with higher attributions in northern counties than in southern counties.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Correction
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sen Pei, Teresa K. Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Marta Galanti, Jeffrey Shaman
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Tapio Schneider, Oliver R. A. Dunbar, Jinlong Wu, Lucas Boettcher, Dmitry Burov, Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo, Gregory L. Wagner, Sen Pei, Chiara Daraio, Raffaele Ferrari, Jeffrey Shaman
Summary: Traditional epidemic management methods like testing, contact tracing, and isolation face challenges in scaling up, while exposure notification apps have the potential for digital expansion. This study presents network data assimilation (DA) to enhance and improve contact networks, providing users with continuous assessment of individual exposure and infection risks, which can effectively control epidemics.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Yuliang Chen, Tao Liu, Xiaolin Yu, Qinghui Zeng, Zixi Cai, Haisheng Wu, Qingying Zhang, Jianpeng Xiao, Wenjun Ma, Sen Pei, Pi Guo
Summary: This study proposes an ensemble forecast system for dengue fever, which addresses the challenge of predicting outbreaks with different scales. By combining a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF) algorithm, the system generates real-time forecasts of dengue fever spread dynamics and adjusts the predicted outbreak size based on updated information. The system outperforms a generalized additive model approach in accurately projecting peak timing, peak intensity, and total incidence in retrospective forecasts of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sen Pei, Sasikiran Kandula, Jaime Cascante Vega, Wan Yang, Steffen Foerster, Corinne Thompson, Jennifer Baumgartner, Shama Ahuja, Kathleen Blaney, Jay Varma, Theodore Long, Jeffrey Shaman
Summary: This study analyzes contact tracing records during the second wave of the pandemic in New York City to understand the operational performance of contact tracing and reconstruct exposure and transmission networks at individual and ZIP code levels. The findings reveal a spatial pattern of SARS-CoV-2 spread and highlight communities that are tightly interconnected by exposure and transmission.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Songwei Shan, Dickson Lam, Tim K. Tsang, Jingyi Xiao, Huizhi Gao, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Sen Pei, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Qiuyan Liao, Peng Wu, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Gabriel M. Leung, Benjamin J. Cowling
Summary: Hong Kong has implemented strict measures to control the COVID-19 epidemic waves, but the impact of these measures has been reduced in the fourth wave due to pandemic fatigue. Through telephone surveys and mathematical models, the study analyzes the impact of pandemic fatigue on risk perception and self-protective behaviors, highlighting the importance of mitigating pandemic fatigue in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Renquan Zhang, Xiaolin Wang, Sen Pei
Summary: In this study, we focus on real-world applications of spreading processes in complex networks, aiming to deliver information to specific target nodes. We formulate the targeted influence maximization problem using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and develop a theoretical framework based on message passing and non-backtracking (NB) matrices to find practical solutions. We introduce a metric called targeted collective influence to identify influential spreaders for targeted spreading processes, and our method outperforms other competing heuristic approaches in both synthetic and real-world networks.
PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Sukhyun Ryu, Changhee Han, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Chiara Achangwa, Bingyi Yang, Sen Pei
Summary: This study aimed to explore the impact of nationwide public health and social measures, including school vacations, on the transmissibility and attack rate of the HFMD epidemic in South Korea. The results showed that school vacations and public health and social measures were significantly associated with the reduction in HFMD transmissibility and attack rate.
JOURNAL OF INFECTION AND PUBLIC HEALTH
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Xiao-Ke Xu, Xiao Fan Liu, Lin Wang, Ye Wu, Xin Lu, Xianwen Wang, Sen Pei
Summary: The early spatial spread of COVID-19 in China during early 2020 was mainly driven by outbound travelers from Wuhan. Previous studies have focused on the influence of outbound population flows from Wuhan, but the role of different transportation modes and network structures in the spread of COVID-19 is not well understood. This study examines the impact of road, railway, and air transportation networks on the spread of COVID-19 in China. It finds that short-range spread within Hubei province was primarily influenced by railway transportation, while long-range spread to other provinces was influenced by multiple factors, including air transportation and larger outbreak size in hub cities.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Renquan E. Zhang, Jilei Tai, Sen E. Pei
Summary: Mathematical models are used to infer unobserved infections and support decision-making in outbreak control. In this study, an ensemble inference method is used to infer unobserved infections using partial observations, accounting for uncertainty in model parameters. This method shows robustness in inferring unobserved infections and can be applied to large-scale networks.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Pei Sen, Teresa K. Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Marta Galanti, Jeffrey Shaman
Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 2020 was characterized by increasing ascertainment rates, high population susceptibility, and rising community infectious rates, with infection fatality rate decreasing towards the end of the year.