Impacts of land use/cover change on spatial patterns of summer precipitation at decadal scale over eastern China

The impacts and corresponding mechanisms of land use/cover change (LUCC), mainly crops and pasture, on the spatial patterns of summer precipitation over eastern China at the decadal timescale during the last millennium are investigated, using a set of land use/cover sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. Two leading modes of summer precipitation over eastern China at decadal scale before (with slight LUCC) and after (with drastic LUCC) 1750 AD are compared. The results show that the LUCC plays an important role in modulating the spatial patterns of summer precipitation over eastern China at decadal scale. Before 1750 AD, the first leading mode exhibits a meridional dipole pattern, while the second leading mode exhibits a meridional tripole pattern. After 1750 AD, the order of the spatial patterns switches, that is, the tripole pattern as the first leading mode and the dipole pattern as the second leading mode. During both periods, the dry north-wet south dipole pattern is associated with an anomalous A-C (anticyclone-cyclone) low-level circulation pattern and the related water vapour divergence-convergence pattern from north to south over the eastern part of East Asia, whereas the tripole pattern corresponds to an anomalous A-C-A (anticyclone-cyclone-anticyclone) circulation pattern along with the corresponding tripole pattern of water vapour divergence/convergence. The regressions of sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter resemble obvious Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) modes. In addition, the AMO index displays a decreasing trend during the last millennium under the LUCC forcing, while the PDO index does not show an obvious changing trend. The possibility of coupled PDO-AMO anti-phase (in-phase) increases (decreases) after 1750 AD, leading to the increased (decreased) possibility of the tripole (dipole) pattern in eastern China. Our findings confirm the necessity of including LUCC as an important forcing factor in predictions of future climate changes, especially at the regional scale and also at longer timescales.

Automated summary

The study suggests that land use/cover change plays an important role in modulating the spatial patterns of summer precipitation over eastern China during the last millennium, especially at the decadal scale. Results show a shift in the precipitation patterns in eastern China after 1750 AD, with an increased likelihood of the tripole pattern.