4.7 Article

Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty

期刊

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 10, 期 1, 页码 -

出版社

NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-73456-8

关键词

-

资金

  1. UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/L016036/1]
  2. Getty Conservation Institute
  3. Science and technology department of Gansu province, China through the Dunhuang Academy [18YF1WA003, 18ZD2FA001]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and conservation scenarios. Results show increased wind velocities could substantially increase the overall deterioration risk, implying the need for wind-reducing conservation strategies. In contrast, predicted increases in rainfall are not likely to increase the overall deterioration risk, despite greater risk of rain-driven deterioration features. Of the four conservation strategies tested in our model, deterioration risk under all climatic scenarios was best reduced by increasing the coverage of natural, randomly-distributed vegetation to 80%. We suggest this approach could be an appropriate long-term conservation strategy for other earthen sites in dryland regions.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.7
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据