Historical Evaluation and Future Projections of 100-m Wind Energy Potentials Over CORDEX-East Asia

Countries in East Asia have set ambitious goals for the development of wind energy to meet the increasing energy demand and to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have investigated changes in wind energy over East Asia under future climatic conditions. In this study, we investigate future changes of 100-m wind speed and wind energy potential over the CORDEX-East Asia region under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, by using ensemble simulations from the regional climate model Consortium for small-scale modeling in CLimate Mode (CCLM). A multivariate bias adjustment method based on the N-dimensional probability density function transform is used to correct raw simulated horizontal wind components. The comparison between future climate (2021-2050 and 2070-2099) and the present climate (1971-2000) shows decreases in wind speed, wind power density, and wind energy output over most of the CORDEX-East Asia region, especially in the tropics. Projected increases are pronounced over the Himalayan regions, the Indo-China Peninsula, the South China Sea, and the western Pacific Ocean in summer and over northeastern China, parts of Western China and the Indo-China Peninsula in winter. Interannual and intra-annual variability of wind power density are projected to intensify significantly for most of the CORDEX-East Asia region. The occurrence of weak wind speeds (<3 m/s) is projected to increase, while strong wind speeds (>11 m/s) are projected to decrease over most of the ocean.