The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

(2020) Zeke Hausfather et al.   NATURE

Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test

(2020) Nicole Glanemann et al.   Nature Communications

Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios

(2020) David L. McCollum et al.   Nature Energy

Climate change: making decisions in the face of deep uncertainty

(2020) Judy Lawrence et al.   NATURE

The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets

(2019) T.A. Napp et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility‐scale PV levelised cost of electricity

(2019) Eero Vartiainen et al.   PROGRESS IN PHOTOVOLTAICS

The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions

(2018) Madeleine McPherson et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

(2018) Jonathan R. Lamontagne et al.   Earths Future

Interpreting energy scenarios

(2018) Gokul Iyer et al.   Nature Energy

Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

(2018) David L. McCollum et al.   Nature Energy

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets

(2018) Marshall Burke et al.   NATURE

Mitigation scenarios must cater to new users

(2018) Christopher Weber et al.   Nature Climate Change

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

(2018) Volker Krey et al.   ENERGY

Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules

(2018) Goksin Kavlak et al.   ENERGY POLICY

Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

(2017) Ajay Gambhir et al.   Energies

Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

(2017) Andries F. Hof et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change

(2017) Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

(2017) Elmar Kriegler et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

(2017) Keywan Riahi et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

(2017) Solomon Hsiang et al.   SCIENCE

The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

(2017) Felix Creutzig et al.   Nature Energy

Will international emissions trading help achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement?

(2016) Shinichiro Fujimori et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The future costs of OPV – A bottom-up model of material and manufacturing costs with uncertainty analysis

(2016) Ajay Gambhir et al.   SOLAR ENERGY MATERIALS AND SOLAR CELLS

Limiting global warming to 2 °C: What do the latest mitigation studies tell us about costs, technologies and other impacts?

(2016) Olivier Dessens et al.   Energy Strategy Reviews

Reinventing the energy modelling–policy interface

(2016) Neil Strachan et al.   Nature Energy

Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?

(2015) A. A. Fawcett et al.   SCIENCE

Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles

(2015) Björn Nykvist et al.   Nature Climate Change

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

(2014) Elmar Kriegler et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

An innovation-focused roadmap for a sustainable global photovoltaic industry

(2014) Cheng Zheng et al.   ENERGY POLICY

Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges

(2014) Stefan Pfenninger et al.   RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review

(2014) Volker Krey   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Energy and Environment

The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets

(2013) Jasper van Vliet et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios

(2013) Volker Krey et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

(2013) Gunnar Luderer et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

(2013) Brian C. O’Neill et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

(2013) Béla Nagy et al.   PLoS One

The Energy Technology Innovation System

(2012) Kelly Sims Gallagher et al.   Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses

(2012) Robert Lempert   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info-Gap Methods

(2012) Jim W. Hall et al.   RISK ANALYSIS

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

(2011) Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

(2010) Richard H. Moss et al.   NATURE

Unraveling the photovoltaic technology learning curve by incorporation of input price changes and scale effects

(2010) C.F. Yu et al.   RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS