期刊
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 727, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138543
关键词
Flu-like epidemics; Environmental factors; Seasonality; Pollen induced immune response; Statistical analysis
There is uncertainty if current models for the Covid-19 pandemic should already take into account seasonality. That is because current environmental factors do not provide a powerful explanation of such seasonality, especially given climate differences between countrieswithmoderate climates. It is hypothesized that onemajor factor is overlooked: pollen count. Pollen are documented to invoke strong immune responses and might create an environmental factor that makes it more difficult for flu-like viruses to survive outside a host. This Dutch study confirms that there is a (highly) significant inverse correlation between pollen count and weekly changes in medical flu consults, and that there is a highly significant inverse correlation between hay fever incidence, as measured by prescribed medication revenues, and weekly flu consults. This supports the idea that pollen are a direct or indirect factor in the seasonality of flu-like epidemics. If seasonality will be observed during the covid-19 spread as well, it is not unlikely that pollen play a role. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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