Effectiveness of natural protected areas for preventing land use and land cover changes of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico

Natural protected areas (NPA) are portions of the Mexican territory where the original environment has not been modified and which are protected in order to conserve, restore, and develop biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of 18 NPA located within the Transmexican Volcanic Belt by analyzing deforestation and land use and land cover change (LULCC) between 2002 and 2014. An index of effectiveness (EI) was obtained by adding three parameters: (1) the percentage of the transformed area (TA%), (2) the rate of change inside the NPA (LULCC-R), and (3) the difference between the rate of change inside the NPA and outside (buffer). The sum of the three standardized parameters forms the EI, where NPA were classified as effective (index value > 2), weakly effective (index value between 1 and 2), and noneffective (index value < 1). In addition, we identified the most important transitions between categories of LULCC for each NPA. Only three NPA were classified as effective: Cienegas de Lerma (EI = 2.29), Volcan Nevado de Colima (EI = 2.08), and Iztaccihuatl-Popocatepetl (EI = 2.06). Eleven were weakly effective, and the remaining four were noneffective. Bosencheve was the least effective (with all parameters in 0). In terms of transition probabilities in each effectiveness class, effective NPA were characterized by transition probabilities of forest cover recovery. Weakly effective NPA presented exchange probabilities between forest cover and land use. Finally, in noneffective NPA, probabilities indicated transitions from forest cover to agricultural and livestock land use. Our results show that, in general, NPA are not currently effective in containing LULCC processes in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt.