期刊
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
卷 17, 期 167, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0121
关键词
transfer efficiency; exposure; fomite; quantitative microbial risk assessment; phage; transmission
资金
- University of Arizona Graduate & Professional Student Council Research and Project (ReaP) grant [RSRCH-501FY'18]
- Medical Research Council (UK) through the Skills Development Fellowship [MR/N014855/1]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK: Healthcare Environment Control, Optimization and Infection Risk Assessment [EP/PO/23312/1]
- University of Arizona Foundation
- Hispanic Women's Corporation/Zuckerman Family Foundation Student Scholarship Award through the Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona
- MRC [MR/N014855/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Current microbial exposure models assume that microbial exchange follows a concentration gradient during hand-to-surface contacts. Our objectives were to evaluate this assumption using transfer efficiency experiments and to evaluate a model's ability to explain concentration changes using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) on these experimental data. Experiments were conducted with two phages (MS2, Phi X174) simultaneously to study bidirectional transfer. Concentrations on the fingertip and surface were quantified before and after fingertip-to-surface contacts. Prior distributions for surface and fingertip swabbing efficiencies and transfer efficiency were used to estimate concentrations on the fingertip and surface post contact. To inform posterior distributions, Euclidean distances were calculated for predicted detectable concentrations (log(10) PFU cm(-2)) on the fingertip and surface post contact in comparison with experimental values. To demonstrate the usefulness of posterior distributions in calibrated model applications, posterior transfer efficiencies were used to estimate rotavirus infection risks for a fingertip-to-surface and subsequent fingertip-to-mouth contact. Experimental findings supported the transfer gradient assumption. Through ABC, the model explained concentration changes more consistently when concentrations on the fingertip and surface were similar. Future studies evaluating microbial transfer should consider accounting for differing fingertip-to-surface and surface-to-fingertip transfer efficiencies and extend this work for other microbial types.
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