期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 261, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121038
关键词
Electric vehicles (EVs); Logistic growth model; Sales prediction; Market share; CO2 emissions; Cross-national
Over the past decade, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have experienced significant growth. However, predictions of future sales developments, which are needed for the planning of EV production as well as supporting policies and a sufficient energy supply, are still sparse. In this study, a long-term forecast of the EV inventory in 26 countries across five continents is provided by means of a logistic growth model. Using actual sales data from 2010 to 2018, predictions were made for these countries until 2035. Findings indicate that, overall, 30% of the worldwide passenger vehicle fleet will be EVs in 2032. However, results also display vast differences between countries, which can particularly be attributed to divergences in governmental support. EV growth predictions were additionally analyzed in terms of sustainability impacts. The analysis showed that reductions in CO2 emissions can be achieved with the predicted EV growth, given that countries invest heavily in renewable energy sources. Given the current energy mixes though, worldwide CO2 emissions will continue to rise until 2035 despite a nearly 50% share of EVs. The paper further discusses the amount of energy that will be required to meet the growing demand and highlights that the production of EV batteries will be the key bottleneck in the development of EVs. Finally, important implications for policymakers, marketers and future research are derived. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据