期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 47, 期 11, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087809
关键词
heat; anthropogenic climate change; attribution; future projection; CMIP6
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41875105]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2018YFA0606002]
- Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST
Western-central Europe experienced the most severe June-July heat on record in 2019, with several heatwaves occurring over the most densely populated regions. Highest 3-day averaged daily mean temperature in June-July averaged over the region exceeds normal by 4.7 degrees C, which is estimated to be a 1-in-283-year event over the 1950-2014 climate. The driver and future likelihood of this extreme heat in a changing climate have drawn extensive attention. Based on the newly released climate model data from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that anthropogenic climate change has caused a sevenfold increase in the likelihood of the extreme heat over 1950-2014 climate, and even a 23-fold increase since 1980s. Such extreme heat will become more frequent in the future, with return periods of 1.8-7.2 years under future emission and societal development scenarios. Without sufficient adaptation strategies, such extreme heat would become more widespread, long-lasting, and severe over Europe.
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