Research on the anti-interference capability of the tourism environment system for the core stakeholders of semi-arid valley-type cities: analysis based on the multi-scenario and time series diversity perspectives

Given the relatively harsh natural environment in semi-arid valley areas, the attraction and radiation functions of semi-arid valley cities have become the foci of further development in Western China. This study takes Lanzhou City (a semi-arid river valley city) as an example and uses the theoretical framework of pressure-state-response to optimize the response strategies of the tourism environmental needs of the City's core stakeholders from the multi-scenario and time series diversity perspectives. Based on the index system of the tourism environment system (TES) in semi-arid valley cities, the system dynamics model is used to forecast the index system of the tourism environment from multi-scenario perspectives. Based on the evolutionary optimization algorithm NSGA-II, the core stakeholders are optimized to meet the tourism environment needs, and the optimal solution set is selected based on the decision makers' preferences. Finally, several measures to improve the anti-interference ability of semi-arid valley cities' TES are proposed, namely standardizing the preferences of decision makers, improving the resilience of the destination TES, carrying out the safety management of valley cities' TES, and adjusting the seasonality of such cities to improve their tourism environment and promote the welfare of various stakeholders.